Quote:
Originally Posted by brucepick
Elio now is at 16,000 paid reservations. At $6800 selling price, that's just under $109 million in sales. I'm sure most will be sold with the automatic transmission, which will add an unspecified amount, several hundred dollars.
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Even if we assumed that 100% of the reservation holders followed through and purchased an Elio, 16,000 is well short of the # Elio released in the financial report it released last year. Elio has planned to sell nearly 70,000 units in the first year of production, with an estimate of 250,000 per year for the next 5 years of production.
That kind of volume is required for a car with a $1k profit margin. Frankly, it's impossible for this car to sell the type of volume Elio is predicting in it's report. Without the volume Elio cannot stay in business.
Do you want the perfect example of why Elio won't work? Honda Insight. The first gen was groundbreaking in every way. Relatively cheap, insane fuel economy, and a dedicated commuter car. Total global sales over it's entire lifespan = < 20,000. Honda decides to pull the plug and redesign the car for what people want. The 2nd Gen Insight is born. It sold more in its first year of production in US market alone than the first gen insight did globally over it's entire production.
And this is coming from someone who would buy an Elio tomorrow if I had the chance. I'm not trying to bash on Elio, but I would like the company to provide some a realistic business model that will allow this car to be a success, rather than continuing to make empty promises in hopes of getting more up-front funding in the form of reservations.
Elio is in a good position to get a car production ready, but it won't be priced at $6800. Even if you reserved an Elio, it doesn't guarantee pricing. There is just no way this car will sell as well as a Civic, and without the sales there is no way they can sell it for $6800.