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A smaller circumference will reduce both speed and distance covered so to compensate you'd need to drive both faster and further, at least according to the speedo/odo.
Using GPS data is indeed the best way to resolve it.
Then your winter tires are softer, have higher side walls and narrower thread, these things will contribute to the FE. Even at the correct speed an distance those may compensate for the higher RPMs and higher rolling resistance from the shorter tire radius.
With so many things to consider it is near impossible to draw conclusions from this test alone.
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2011 Honda Insight + HID, LEDs, tiny PV panel, extra brake pad return springs, neutral wheel alignment, 44/42 PSI (air), PHEV light (inop), tightened wheel nut.
  lifetime FE over 0.2 Gigameter or 0.13 Megamile.
For confirmation go to people just like you.
For education go to people unlike yourself.
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