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A study can only model, not predict. Not if it doesn't have all the facts.
One sobering fact is that the problem-free lifespan of gasoline engines may be getting much, much shorter. We all know that zinc levels in modern oils is getting much, much lower. However, due to other environmental concerns and to reduce consumption, engines and bearings are becoming much, much less durable. It's not unfathomable that zinc will be completely phased out of motor oils within the next decade in the US, which, combined with the popularity of direct injection, ethanol and lightweight engine internals, sets up a situation where valvetrain and bearing wear become a serious problem. That kind of affects any life-cycle analysis going forward.
EVs and hybrids... we pretty much know where we're at in regards to the downsides, already.
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As pointed out in the comments, he cited a study of Chinese EVs and electricity. China has very, very, VERY lax environmental standards. They have tightened up standards for cars, which is reflected in the study, and they are expected to tighten it up for power generation going forward. But even then, the study notes that in the issue at hand... fine particulates... EVs still fare better because they are emitted far from population centers and pose less of a health hazard.
He also cited a study that tries to predict environmental impact from cars based on fuel type. I note he mentioned that gasoline powered cars are less polluting. He's citing cars powered by tar sand gasoline.
Now, there's a problem with that. As noted in other threads, tar sand isn't going to last forever. In fact, newer and newer wells go over the "hump" more and more quickly. This means more energy and infrastructure development is needed to extract the fuel. Not to mention the damage to the road infrastructure in the area, which is an additional environmental cost. I'd like to read the paper to see if it takes escalating infrastructure costs for tar gas production into account. I'm pretty sure it doesn't.
This is not to say EVs are the be-all and end-all... I don't believe that for one second. They're too expensive and too heavy and the upfront cost is a major hurdle for anyone who isn't a first-world buyer with an upper middle-class budget.
Funnily enough, the Chinese study pointed out which direction we have to go... E-Bikes. Not necessarily E-Bikes per se, but lightweight, simple and cheap electric transportation for urban use. Low lifetime emissions, low cost, low pollution.
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