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Old 12-16-2014, 12:26 AM   #5 (permalink)
jamesqf
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Doesn't even address the main reason: ISIS. They control a good bit of oil, which they can sell for whatever they can get. Since they stole it, and can keep on producing it with gunpoint labor, they don't have to worry about making a profit on investment: like any other thief, they sell for whatever they can get.

So you have two other kinds of producers: those (like the OPEC states) with proven reserves & established infrastructure. Since they need revenue, they can, to a certain extent, follow the ISIS price downwards for a while. But it won't last, because of those other producers with new reserves (like the US fracking stuff) that cost upwards of $80/bbl to extract. They can't sell that oil for $60/bbl or less for long without going bankrupt. When they do, supply contracts, producers with deep pockets will buy up the assets of the bankrupt producers (at bargain prices), and the price of oil will go right back up again.
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