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I'm pretty sure sometime before those twelve years are up, oil prices will swing back up past $80 a barrel. Perhaps even by next year. At that point, you could probably lop off a year or two... or three... from the calculations.
But still... it makes more financial sense to downsize than to keep going for a big car with a hybrid motor. Which, I think, is reflected in the way hybrid sales are starting to lag in growth compared to regular car sales.
Then again, that could simply be the fickle buyers talking. Look at how they're running back to trucks now that gas is cheap again.
The EV market is still growing, but it will eventually find market saturation once the niche is filled. I doubt it will end up anywhere beyond 1% of the total market, however. Things will depend on what the next administration and other government do with those EV incentives in the years to come.
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