Quote:
Originally Posted by solarguy
I think the more sophisticated macroeconomic analysis of peak oil suggests that around the peak, or just after the peak in production, prices will get very volatile.
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That's what we thought was happening around 08, and then US Shale came in... but I have no doubt that we'll experience the same thing once the expensive stuff starts sputtering out, as well.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MetroMPG
what is the time delay between prices going back up and drilling re-commencing?
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I think this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by solarguy
That will lead to a much slower build up of non-conventional oil production the next go-round. And Saudi laughs all the way to the bank.
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Until the prices stabilize at a higher level for a relatively long period of time, I think investors will be wary of "expensive" non-conventional oil. Maybe a year or more of steady price increases?