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Tesla has a solid record with their roadster, Model X and Model S so I don't see a risk with the Model 3. The Model X and S have already decimated the over $100k, luxury market. The Model 3 should pretty well dominate the +$35k market and ensure a long and profitable production life. So much for the low-end competitors, BMW, Leaf, and GM.
There comes a point where one wonders how low it can go. Is there a profitable, $20k, EV?
If there is, it comes from elimination of the gas engine and simplification of the transmission. It may be something as simple as the Gigafactory coming online with spare capacity.
Then there is the sleeping giant, the electric pickup and SUV. Personally I think that would be a better target than the $20k market that already has plenty of players. A 4-wheel drive, EV pickup truck would embarrass a lot of 'urban cowboys.'
Bob Wilson
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2019 Tesla Model 3 Std. Range Plus - 215 mi EV
2017 BMW i3-REx - 106 mi EV, 88 mi mid-grade
Retired engineer, Huntsville, AL
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