I agree with the conclusion. But surely the most action is taking place 90° after TDC, when the lever arm on the crank throw is at a maximum?
https://www.google.com/search?q=air+vs+water+offroad
Scanning the result here suggests that the advantage goes to water-cooling creeping in traffic or over boulder-sized rocks.
Old racing Porsches started with air-cooled cylinders and water-cooled heads. Some interesting discussion here:
http://rennlist.com/forums/996-forum/202717-what-technical-innovation-led-to-porsche-going-to-water-cooled-engines-on-996-a.html
*noise reduction
*Four valves per cylinder for emissions reasons doesn't leave room for cooling fins
*air-cooling is really just oil cooling anyway
*...and, yes; of course, longevity.