The discussion came up concerning electricity in Australia but the numbers would be the same for the USA if multiplied by 17.
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Wikipedia says for 2014 Australia consumed 224,000,000,000 kWh for the year.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ty_consumption
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Change the prefix to Mega by moving the ecimal 3 places. 224,000,000 MWh.
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Divide by 8760 number of hours in a year. 25,570.7 MW average electrical consumption for Australia. 25,570,700,000 Watts
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The SolarWorld SW340 is a nice, high end panel. 17.29% efficiency. 180 W/ m^2. $1.03/ Watt. $355.00 each not delivered.
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https://www.wholesalesolar.com/19223...no-solar-panel
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25,570,700,000 W / 180 W/ m^2 = 14,205,944.44 m^2 and 7,520,794 panels. For a nameplate output.
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$2,670 Billion. For the nameplate. Multiply times 5 assuming a 20% capacity when installed not in a high desert. SolarStar does 31%. Topaz does 24.4%. Desert Sunlight does 26.7%
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Upstate NY, USA does 13%.
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37,604,000 panels, $13,350 Billion dollars US. $13.35 Trillion. Just for panels not installed and no land or wires. And no inverters to make AC.
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$2US/ W installed would double this to $26 Trillion with the inverters and construction costs. But no storage. So it still has a very limited usefullness.
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71 km^2 panel area. How much more for the space between panels? Roads, buildings, ect?
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Now add the batteries for just 12 hours storage. Which isn't nearly enough but we will all have to get used to working when the sun shines and waiting it out when it doesn't for a few days.
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25,570,700 kW continuous average consumption for Australia in 2014. Times 12 hours. = 306,848,400 kWh. Times $400US/ kWh for gridscale Tesla PowerPacks with inverters.
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https://www.greentechmedia.com/artic...020#gs.YpLl1kU
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$12,274,000,000 dollars US. These batteries will drift down to 50% remaining capacity in 4,500 cycles/ 15 years to require replacement again. So $25 Trillion for batteries for 30 years.
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30 years x 8760 hours x 25,570,700 kW continous production assuming there was never more than 12 hours of poor sun for the batteries to cover,
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= 6.72 TWh over 30 years / $40 Trillion = $0.167 / kWh amortized over 30 years. Very few investors will buy in at $0.167/ kWh.
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This is $0.055 just for the panels. with no installation. racks, wires, inverters, land. Nothing else but the panels. How do we keep getting news articles stating $0.03/ kWh?
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Maybe the panels will last 50 years making them $0.033 just for the panels with no installation or any way to use them.
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I'm sure there are better algorithms for adding Batteries a little at a time to maintain the 12 hours storage but I will leave that to someone else and just simplfy it to 2X sets of batteries over 30 years for this discussion.
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So we are at $40 Trillion just for the parts. For something that will have several total days long blackouts per year. North East USA would be much worse due the rainy, snowy weather.
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The USA would be 17 times this figure. $680 Trillion over 30 years to replace just 2014 electricity totals. Multiply by 3 to replace all energy. And double that in 30 years for growth worldwide.
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Run the numbers.
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A 1.05GW nuclear plant averages 1GW, rain or shine. For 50 years plus some refueling costs. We can get Gen3+ plants to $10 Billion ea if we buckle down and try to get good at it.
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This is 433,500,000,000 kWh over 50 years / by $10,000,000,000 constuction cost = $0.023 over 50 years. Cheaper than the price of just solar panels not installed.
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The average ongoing operating costs for a nuclear plant in 2008 was $0.0186 / kWh for fuel and operating and management. For some really good, high paying jobs.
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https://atomicinsights.com/nuclear-e...vable-problem/
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It is less for fuel at first but let's say $0.0186 would be the average.
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$0.0416 / kWh for 50 years for nuclear. And they never need massive batteries or have blackouts between all of them on a grid.
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Not to mention getting good at finding industrial co-uses for the waste geat.
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Rock solid 24/7 nuclear is cheaper than installing just solar panels that can only help peaks at less than 15% of the grid and is 4 times cheaper than blackout prone solar plus batteries.