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Old 11-28-2017, 12:30 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by rmay635703 View Post
we probably aren’t going to put out cars quite ready for prime time, we will error proof by making everyone a test driver

Also stop and go lights on 45mph+ highways suck, putting a stop and go light on a 65mph highway is poor road design and causes accidents ,
If that practice were illegal and such intersections were properly designed we might have fewer accidents.
What is the definition of "prime time"? If it's safer than human alone control and reduces collisions and injury, then it meets my definition of prime time. We're all test dummies in life, as no product is fully dummy proof.

Originally Posted by Xist View Post
retail sales of fully-automated vehicles aren’t expected to begin until 2025 at the earliest.

"[M]ore than 20 percent of cars on the road today were produced before 2002 – [fully autonomous] vehicles [...] will likely not be a majority of the fleet for three more decades."

Someone commented that autonomous vehicles should mean people stop owning cars, but somebody pointed out that we do not need to have our own homes, but we choose to anyway.
I believe 2025 is about right, if not a few years optimistic. Once it starts though, the majority of the fleet will turn over much faster than 3 decades. He's even quoted as saying only 20% of vehicles on the road are 15 years or older. That's 1.5 decades, and autonomous driving will make regular cars obsolete faster than normal.

Homes and vehicles are very different. I am perfectly comfortable renting a car or allowing a taxi to take me somewhere, but most people aren't comfortable sharing their personal living space with strangers. Sure, some people will still own vehicles for similar reasons they own their home, but many will forgo the expense.

Originally Posted by Old Tele man View Post
1) Unfortunately TOO many people want "change" simply for the sake of change, without actually IMPROVING anything except their bank account.
2) First editions of most human-produced items tend to be filled with problems.
3) "Don't TELL me, SHOW me" has eons of foundation.
4) Brownian Movement is Mother Nature's way of letting things "move" without actually for humans too.
I don't disagree with any of those points. People wanting change for the sake of financial gain is not necessarily bad. It's what drives innovation, and is what allows a variety of products to exist since what is "better" is subjective. Is the iPhone a better phone than a Galaxy? Both are encouraging people to change for the sake of increasing profits.

No doubt, the 100th iteration will still be filled with problems. Incremental improvement is what keeps things interesting.

Commercial airplanes are heavily automated with the goal of increasing safety and efficiency while reducing personnel (where did the engineer go?). The same logic applies to vehicles. This is the show part of the talk.

Automation will be worse until it is better. Has it ever been any different?
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Give me absolute safety, or give me death!

Last edited by redpoint5; 11-28-2017 at 12:37 PM..
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