Quote:
Originally Posted by rmay635703
Pierre Andurand Has stated that oil could go to $300 a barrel
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He also admits oil is inelastic (no news there) and that $100/barrel oil didn't break the EU economy over the past 3 years. Well, it may not have broken it, but it certainly stretched the debt bubble's skin very, very thin.
A global rise in oil prices could be a strategic win for China, in that they have locked in extremely low contract prices with corrupt third world oil producers (the downside is that they contracted with corrupt third-world governments who honor their promises about as frequently as do the Chinese, hence the need for a large blue-water navy and military installations throughout the world --- might makes right, or as Mao put it in his little red book, "Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun.").
Some ways Trump could significantly impact the US market, and to some extent the global market, would be to finish the Keystone pipeline, promote coal to liquid (in 2006, a proposed pilot refinery, supported by pre-presidential candidate Obama, would have been profitable with oil above $30/barrel), and facilitate the decentralization of refining capacity (major refiners use the EPA and other agencies to limit market entry) and move it away from hurricane impact zones.
$300/barrel is not inconceivable given the precarious political situations in and around major oil producing regions. Taking care of domestic needs first is sound energy and economic policy. We have the resources to be self-sufficient, but being self-sufficient for the long haul (generations) will require significantly improving efficiency(conservation) throughout the energy sector.