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Old 06-06-2018, 12:11 PM   #1982 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by sendler View Post
Competive for peak, intermittent electricity only. They have a hidden cost in that near 100% thermal backup is still equired to prevent blackouts and maintain baseload stability.

New electricity farms are not renewable. They are rebuildable. Offshore wind turbines have a 30% failure rate in 7 years. Onshore is 18 years to 30% failure. Grid scale solar PV predicates a 25 year replacement of the panels. They may last a bit longer. But the invertors will need two replacements in that time.

Oil is 30% of total energy and personal transportation is only 30% of oil. Electricity is only 20-30% of total enegy depending on what type of industry your area features. So a complete transition of all personal transportation and all electricity will bring most of the efficiency increases we are trying for but still leave 60% or more of the total energy consumption we need that cannot be easily converted to electric. Do not fool yourself. We do not have it made to just put up some wind turbines and solar panels. There will be a big 2-3X deficit in critical energy intensive undertakings that we rely on such as mining and refining steel and concrete and big agg growing enough food. Our lifestyles will have to undergo the Great Simplification as our one time pulse of fossil fuels leave us.
I'm not confident that the transition could be accomplished without severe austerity programs as is done in war time.
It's political suicide to even sponsor a bill which would produce 'losers'.
You'd need a wag-the-dog situation to unify the population,where people would be champing at the bit to do their patriotic part.Short-term inconvenience traded for long-term security.
It is happening in the market place today to some degree without any mention in the press.Subsidies,tax incentives,etc.. It's a way to deal with a situation,without ever mentioning that there's actually a 'situation.' Wall St. makes the transition in the shadows.Maybe a clue or two:
*'JP Morgan Chase Commits to 100% Renewable Energy By 2020 & Facilitating $200-Billion In Clean Energy Financing By 2025.' Joshua Hill,Clean Technica,7/31/17.
* 'Growing number of pension funds divest from fossil fuels,' Attracta Mooney,Financial Times,4/27/17.
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