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I have no data to quote, but from what I've read here by those who know more than I (basjoos, aerohead), I have learned that the belly pan is the better of the two. If you don't/can't/won't install a belly pan, then the air dam will at least direct air around the car, instead of allowing it to go underneath where it becomes turbulent. The air dam increases the frontal area of the car, so it is usually recommended to have it extend only an inch or so below the lowest part of the car.
The difference between the two would depend on air dam size, shape, angle, and fairness to the rest of the car; and bellypanel extent of coverage and 'smoothness'. And weight difference between the two.
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-Terry
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