Quote:
Originally Posted by JSH
I agree planning for automation from the beginning is much more efficient than automating a formerly manual process. The problem is the automation doesn't work. So either Musk tried to automate things that aren't a good fit for automation, his automation people didn't know what they were doing or Musk didn't give them enough time to work out the bugs before starting production. My bet is on the first and last options.
Yup, we use SCRUM, Agile, and Lean manufacturing (and lots of other buzz word methods of lean manufacturing that happen to be in vogue)
If the Model 3 launch was successful you (and Musk) would be right. But it wasn't and instead it was "Production Hell"
For example, Musk skipped the soft-tooling stage. This involves making cheap, lower grade set of tooling to make sample parts. If something doesn't turn out right you modify the tooling and test again. When everything works you cut the purchase order for production hardened tools and discard the soft tools. That way when the line starts up all the parts fit together.
Musk went straight from rapid prototypes parts based on CAD to production parts from hard tool. He did this because he said the soft-tool stage in the Model S production wasn't useful. It wasn't useful because he didn't wait until all the tweaks were made before ordering the production tooling. Musk's take-away from this was not to follow the industry standard process and take the time to do the soft-tool stage correctly for the Model 3. Instead he just skipped the step and we have the fiasco
It seems very odd for a new company to skip basic steps when they don't know what they are doing. However, Musk doesn't know what he doesn't know and isn't willing to listen to people that do know.
For example Audi also skipped soft-tooling when they started then new plant in Mexico. However,
A. They already know how to do a product launch.
B. They already build the car in other locations.
You have to walk before you run and crawl before either.
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The odd thing about this whole situation is that it's only a fiasco compared to what Elon said, not compared to EVs from other manufacturers. For instance, the Bolt was launched 20-months ago and sold 500+cars/month in it's first month out. It's now selling 1,000-1,400+ cars/month. Tesla starting point was a paltry 30 cars/month, but they reached 6,000+ cars/month in 12 months.
Tesla's doing poorly based on their own estimates, but they're doing very well compared to the competition. At this point they're selling more EVs in the US than every other manufacturer combined, and they're about 2,000 cars/month away from selling more EVs than EVs+PHEVs from every other manufacturer combined.
