[aerohead]

THE LONG EMERGENCY
by James Howard Kunstler,c 2005/2006 (Epilogue)
Grove Press,New York
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
In 2018,the work is dated and some things have changed since publishing.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
I finished the book yesterday and did some transcription last night and 3-1/2 hours this morning.I got to about page 129.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
I liked the book.Kunstler put a lot of work into it,and much of it resonated with me.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Since it's what he believes,and he has a harsh view,and he has criticized suburbia before in other books,he admittedly has a 'lens' with which he views his world.No foul there!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
What I would say,is that his predictions are only that.He's not a scientist,nor engineer.
His use of the words 'is' and 'will' presumes a command of knowledge of a future which cannot be known.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
I agree that there's a lot we can do.
He attacks Julian Simon and Bjorn Lomberg by default.A good thing in my opinion.
'Global warming is no longer a theory being disputed by political interests,but an established scientific consensus.' Roger that!
I like his 'outside context problem.'
With his comment about 'educated classes...the greatest squanderers',I would argue that none of them are actually 'educated.'
Kunstler makes the argument that we can't accomplish certain things without fossil fuels,and we can't build alternate energy devices without fossil fuels.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
For wind power:
*rare earth 'exotic',imported materials aren't necessary.
*iron ore could conceivably be mined totally with electric heavy equipment.
*biomass and electricity could be used to create toluene.
*electricity and atmosphere can be used with the Haber-Bosch process to create nitrogen.
*the toluene and nitrogen would make trinitrotoluene (TNT) explosives for explosive ore rock fracturing.
*once fractured,the ore could be transferred via electric loaders to an electric conveyor.
*from the conveyor to hopper cars of an electric railroad (all locomotives are already 'electric',they just need a catenary line or third rail)
*from rail car to steel mill (which could be onsite at mine)
*electric arc furnaces would do the melt,and from there,into the rolling mill,and into fabrication for tower,gondola,and foundation rebar,plus direct casting of generator housing and associated hardware.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
*Biomass,converted to chemical intermediates would produce resins for the turbine blades.
*sand plus an electric furnace would feed molten glass into a spinerette,for glass fiber production,for woven fabrics,roving,chop,tapes,and microspheres.
*resin and glass becomes FRP blades.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
*along with the cast-steel generator housing,steel stator lamination elements could be electrically,pump-pressurized,water jet cut from rolled material.
*anti-eddy current lamination insulating dope from biomass feedstock.
*copper wiring outsourced from same mining scenario,transport,and manufacture.
*electronics from electric-powered facilities as are in production today.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
*limestone mined and transported as above,pulverized in electrically-driven roller crushers,and conveyed into electric ovens,converted to Portland. cement
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
sand and gravel mined with as above heavy equipment,sorted,transported to delivery,with electric tractor trailers.Mixed onsite for reinforced steel tower base.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Erected with all-electric /electro-hydraulic cranes.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Photvoltaics follow same basic pathway,from bauxite,sand,copper,brass,nickel,lead,silver,silic on,biomass-derived PVC/ABS encapsulation,ditto caulk.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
solar-thermal follows basically same pathway.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
I don't see why fossil fuels are a mandatory requirement.
And I don't see the 'alternative energy manufacturing pollution problem.'
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
nitrogen fertilizer can be made,as mentioned before,using I.G.Farbenindustrie A.G.'s Haber-Bosch process.We don't need natural gas.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
As to 'shivering and broke',on page 108,the 'Canada House' project of the 1970s proved that a family of four could survive a Canadian winter without power,given their 1,200 Btus of metabolic heat,plus what could be derived from combusting junk mail.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Present day LEAF,iM-EV,Spark,BOLT,TESLA,Jaguar F-pace,etc.. demonstrate viable,potentially- non-carbon driving.
Present day TESLA semitrailers demonstrate same for heavy trucking.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
A massive degree of electric power load-shedding potential exists.We don't have to build out to Kunstler's 'current' load.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
day's about shot.I'll get back to this Wednesday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
So getting bqck,
The argument for building out to 'current' magnitude limits the conversation.
We don't have to rely on 'fuels'.
We'll rely on 'energy.'
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
School buses can be electrified.
We probably won't be using lead-acid batteries.That will be up to the Chinese.
As to EVs,TESLA has been monitoring battery recharging at their Supercharger stations,and based on their data,the Panasonic Li-ion pack will last 20-years.
If EVs go to the 'template' shape,HWY battery range will go up 25%without any improvement to the pack.(A P100 S Model would be good for 387-miles).
Rare earth minerals are great,but we can do a work-around if we have to,and settle for a little less efficiency.(we're presently using crappy tar sands and oil shale).
p.152 'Around fifteen thousand years ago,Greenland abruptly warmed by sixteen degrees in fifteen years or less.'
This might lead a climatologist to move towards 'alarmist' warnings.*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
A few weeks before the 1929 Wall St. crash,sending the US into the Great Depression until WW-II,Harvard Ph.D. economist,Irving Fisher declared the arrival of 'permanent prosperity'. (beware the economist!)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
From Kunstler's EPILOGUE:
*2005 hurricane season,most extreme in US history.
*Arctic permafrost melting,with tremendous methane releases.
*Warmer ocean water temperatures.(evaporation/precipitation)
*3-Category-5 hurricanes.
*Hurricane Wilma records lowest eye pressure ever recorded.
*1,200 US killed.
*$200-billion in losses.
*Arctic ice cap shrinking.
*Ross Ice Shelf shattering.
*Glacial retreat at all latitudes.
*Antarctic Peninsula warming five times faster than global average.
*Boston gets all-time record January snowfall.
*Stretches of Missouri fall to record lowest levels.
*Australia hits record hottest April.
*Seattle issues first ever heat warning.
*Somalia experiences first snowfall in history.
*At least 200 heat records broken across US.
*Record rain,Mumbai,India,140-killed.
*Tornadoes:Britain,France,Germany.
*New York receives highest rainfall ever recorded for October.
*US -Iraq War: 2,185 US' KIA
*'' 16,000 wounded
*" 10,000-37,000 civilian deaths.
*Chinese,' crypto-communist bureaucracy-free enterprise hybrid government (predicted in 1976 by my political science professor) challenging market dominance in the world economy.