[RedDevil]

Originally Posted by sendler

Sorry. I think you are somehow being greenwashed. Right now it is easy to increase by a certain percentage year on year when you start with next to nothing. The progression of solar and wind will become more linear. 15 years for solar to replace all energy? I'm very sorry. How do you get such an absurd statement?
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Solar is currently listed as 450TWh out of 150,000 TWh. Which is .3%. Even if you were to stop making the common mistake of saying "energy" when you mean to say "electricity", which is 20% of total energy, solar is currently only 1.5%. EIA is forecasting solar to be 15% of total energy by 2050.

Sorry, I think you misread it. I was clear about it being unrealistic that solar energy will continue to grow at 43.3% annually, but (and because) IF IT DID, that exponential growth would reach extreme values.

The point is that the conditions right now allow for such an expansion. Sooner or later there will be limits; no roofs left to cover with PV panels, overproduction, lack of material or building capacity, etc. But until that happens and with no other big changes, the growth may well continue on exponentially and the now very small production % may suddenly get quite substantial.
At 43.3% solar power would more than double every 2 years.
I would not mind that in the least.

At 21.4% wind power doubles every 4 years. It would take a while to get really big, but for now it is leading solar.
If they both keep growing exponentially for just 8 years or so to come their effect would become quite noticeable.