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ldjessee00 · 01-16-2019, 08:51 AM

Now that every auto manufacturer has announced an EV model (or more) to be available to consumers in the next 2 years, I see the transition to smart phones. My flip phone was still for sale a year after the Apple iPhone came out... but not two years. And come three years, it was something to comment on (Why have you not got a smart phone).

I know people who are resistant and still do not have a smart phone, but they are not the majority.

I think the 5 to 10 years is easily a time for SALES of EVs to surpass ICE sales, but it will be 20 years or more before the majority of passenger vehicles on the road are EV.

Also something to consider, all the major companies that sell gas have bought, partnered or started their own charger business. That Shell and BP both bought into charger companies I think is a good indication. Yes, it will take several years to install chargers at all gas stations, but I see these companies are going to do it. Sure, this year will be slow... but in 5 years, it will be like how most stations have diesel, but not every single one (having had a diesel car, I ran into that more than I thought I would, but still 85% had diesel).

So with BP and Shell in on adding chargers to gas stations and auto manufacturers producing EVs, I think the sales of EVs will surpass the sales of ICE passenger vehicles within 5 to 10 years.

OPEC has been playing it smart and trying to keep the price low... but there is only so long they can do that.

This is my thinking based on what little I know about the auto industry, technology, observed technology transitions (SD to HD, VHS to DVD, cassette to CD, etc), and people.

01-16-2019, 08:51 AM	#57 (permalink)
ldjessee00 EcoModding Apprentice Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: Bloomington, IN Posts: 231 The Leaf - '17 Nissan Leaf SL Outback - '16 Subaru Outback Vaquero - '20 Kawasaki Vulcan 1700 Vaquero ABS Thanks: 147 Thanked 87 Times in 63 Posts	Now that every auto manufacturer has announced an EV model (or more) to be available to consumers in the next 2 years, I see the transition to smart phones. My flip phone was still for sale a year after the Apple iPhone came out... but not two years. And come three years, it was something to comment on (Why have you not got a smart phone). I know people who are resistant and still do not have a smart phone, but they are not the majority. I think the 5 to 10 years is easily a time for SALES of EVs to surpass ICE sales, but it will be 20 years or more before the majority of passenger vehicles on the road are EV. Also something to consider, all the major companies that sell gas have bought, partnered or started their own charger business. That Shell and BP both bought into charger companies I think is a good indication. Yes, it will take several years to install chargers at all gas stations, but I see these companies are going to do it. Sure, this year will be slow... but in 5 years, it will be like how most stations have diesel, but not every single one (having had a diesel car, I ran into that more than I thought I would, but still 85% had diesel). So with BP and Shell in on adding chargers to gas stations and auto manufacturers producing EVs, I think the sales of EVs will surpass the sales of ICE passenger vehicles within 5 to 10 years. OPEC has been playing it smart and trying to keep the price low... but there is only so long they can do that. This is my thinking based on what little I know about the auto industry, technology, observed technology transitions (SD to HD, VHS to DVD, cassette to CD, etc), and people.