|
Being involved in electronics and engineering for many years now I have become somewhat proficient(lucky) at projecting(guessing) timelines for new or better technology. I was able to guess about when compact disks would come around from working in computer manufacturing. When I started we were still working with 8 inch floppies.
As soon as the television people started talking about hi def digital televisions I knew it wouldn't be long afterwards that they would basically become computers.
From what I see, the break even economic cost of solar is already here as long as you stay connected to the grid. You just have to get the power companies on board. Will they like giving up all the income and control? Almost certainly not. But if they want to stay in business they will have to do just that...or buy more politicians.
And as we have already seen, the energy return has already long surpassed the break even point. Still, that part is based on at least six year old technology. I am going to guess that within ten years even residential solar modules will reach 28 to 30% efficiency using the new technologies that are now being developed. This should give almost every module an EROEI of less than a year. It also should lower the dollar cost per watt even more. Will everyone want to switch over? Of course not. I've actually had friends tell me they wouldn't have solar panels or drive an electric vehicle even if they were given one. Some just don't understand the increased efficiency of an electric vehicle. Some are afraid of newer technologies. Some are the type that won't change because it would require them to admit they were wrong about solar and electric cars.
The thing is that even though both the concepts and physical devices of solar power and electric cars have been around for many decades, they are both still in their infancy on the technological timeline. If either of those two had as much research put into them as ICE vehicles have, there would no longer be ICE vehicles except for specialized uses.
JJ
|