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Old 05-01-2019, 12:24 PM   #5724 (permalink)
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build out

Originally Posted by sendler View Post
But that is only concerning electricity. Which is only 20% of the energy we use.
We have to build out another 50X wind and solar. And storage. And also electrify all of the 100's of $trillions of built out infrastructure, machines, heat and processes. And grow at 3%/ year to pay back the $275 trillion the world has already borrowed from the future. And not run out of resources or money while doing all of this.
It takes a WWII type austere focused effort to do all of this world wide in 20 years.
here are a few observations from Dr. Wysessions lecture series,looking at a snapshot of 2014,And for the time-being we'll ignore industrial process energy:
*Electrical generation constitutes 12% of overall energy consumption,424-GW.
*The fossil-fuel-fired portion of electrical production wastes 27% of total US energy in the production of electricity.
*If we get fossil-fuels out of electrical production (which he says we must do eventually),our total energy requirement is 2.437-TW.
*He's not against carbon capture and sequestration,but that cost added to the hidden costs of fossil-fuels put's them out of competitive reach of renewables.
*Presently,coal-fired electricity is the most expensive there is,if it's 'hidden' costs are factored into it's price (8.5-cents/kWh).
*Natural gas-derived electrical power would have to at least double in price,in order to cover it's 'hidden' costs.
*Which makes wind power the most economical form of power available.Wind has the same capacity factor as hydroelectric,and as of 2014 was already selling at below 2-cents/kWh in some locations.
*There's enough wind and solar to run the USA.
*Globally,grid storage capacity is 125-GW and growing.
*Twenty years of steady,aggressive growth in renewables moves us in the right direction.
*Use every technology available.
*Wysession accepts natural gas as a 'bridge' to a full renewable future.
*Wysession feels that nuclear fusion is worth throwing money at,even though we have zero% capacity after 50-years of R&D.
*Wysession advocates getting petroleum out of transportation as fast as we can,and save this one-time,precious treasure for something more important than fuel.It would end US military involvement in the Middle East.And a savings of $hundreds of billions a year for more build out.
*Although he doesn't say it directly,it's implied that modified national building codes could guarantee 50% energy savings on all new residential construction.States would have to comply.No contractor could cut corners.Any additional up-front cost would be recovered on the back-end,netting a fortune in savings over the 200-year life of the structure.
*He advocates streamlining automobiles.
*He advocates at least regenerative braking on all cars and light trucks,which implies hybrids at least,BEVs at most.
*Since BEVs are the fastest-growing automobile segment,he presumes that this trend will just extrapolate out into the future, until all ICE vehicles are gone.
*No specifics were given with respect to potential efficiency increases for industrial processes,other than they can all be improved.
*Population is a big issue.
*Lifestyles are a big issue.
*He's big on education,but again,that's a topic sure to rankle folks.
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