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Old 05-17-2019, 01:06 PM   #5856 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Grant-53 View Post
Each prediction is based upon a set of assumptions. it is an extrapolation of known data and perceived trends. Natural systems tend to self regulate. People tend to make substitutions when one product no longer is viable. I have lived on the 'eve of destruction' my whole life. Without a definite Pareto diagram of the factors influencing weather and climate or per-capital resource production there is little certainty of making precise predictions more than five years into the future. We can take prudent steps to minimize waste heat and conserve farm and forest land. I suspect these are root issues.
That is exactly our problem. We have subverted every natural regulation on ourselves--we invented healthcare and medicine to extend our lives and to keep alive those who would have died naturally before the advent of medical technology (for example, my appendix ruptured three years ago. Prior to the twentieth century, I would be dead--and indeed, this is exactly what killed my great-great-grand uncle, Brigham Young, in 1877, Through technology, my mother has been kept alive for 14 years with terminal bone marrow cancer--but only at great monetary and resource cost). We have made infant mortality almost unheard of in the developed world. We have sated ourselves with a seemingly endless supply of cheap food, high in the macronutrients which we crave because they were in short supply during our evolution but which are bad for us in the quantities we eat them now, and we address this by throwing more resources of medicine and surgical technology at it. We think nothing of consuming goods that have been transported several times around the world, at enormous expense of energy, composed of resources dug up in far-flung places. We count it unthinkable to live in a shelter that isn't extremely large and climate-controlled. Only a portion of our population has engaged in all these things (US, Europe), while the rest are racing to catch up now (China). Despite this, there is evidence that we are well on our way to altering our environment such that it is not clear it will be suitable for our continued habitation. If nature self-corrects (which it will), it will not go well for us.

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