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Originally Posted by sendler
Easier to see chart of predicted energy by source for the different Shared Socio-Economic Pathways that the scientists are now using for the updated climate change models. Is there really that much recoverable oil left? 120 million barrels a day for the next 80 years and beyond? We are already fracking the source rock and drilling in the deep ocean. After this there is nothing left.
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SSP1 predicts 3C warming and SSP5, 5C and higher beyond 2100
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They are more optimistic than the UN (predicts 10.5 billion peak) on controlling the peak population. Our current debt/ growth/ inequality based economic system requires constant 3% growth of GPD in order to create "jobs" for full employment. This results in a doubling of GDP every 25 years and would result in nearly the level which is shown in SSP5. Is it really possible to see the size of the human endeavor as 8 times bigger than today in 75 years given the constraints of raw material throughput and declining resource grades?
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https://www.carbonbrief.org/explaine...lCGuCzMyA2UygQ
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There's as much in the ground as we've burned so far.How long it would last,would be a function of end-use efficiency.There's also synfuels,which could be derived from Coal,bitumin,shale, or any other type of hydrocarbon (at a cost),perhaps they're allowing for that.