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Yes, I think the hot air rises upstairs, unimpeded by the open stairwell. That, and I'm not sure how well the insulation between the levels is, but a layer of drywall and layer of MDF probably isn't much. Finally, it's a daylight basement, so the portion in contact with the earth is having heat drawn away.
I bought a FLIR phone attachment on sale ($150) to play with finding areas lacking proper insulation. I'll have to spend some time with it to see what I find. I'll probably never recoup the cost, but I like playing with new gadgets, and I can use it at multiple houses to help others.
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