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Good analysis!
IMO a BMS is pretty much necessary for any chemistry. For my mower which is currently lead acid, it's a simple monitoring system to make sure I don't over-disharge any specific battery. It's not automated, but it is a BMS.
The lipo chemistry I agree would require a much more robust system for safety and battery life. However, lots of the OEMs are using a similar chemistry in their EVs due to the power and every density advantages over the other chemistries. I agree a BMS would add cost, but I also think (don't quote me on this) that there are more and more off the shelf systems you can get that will do what you need. I haven't looked into that yet to verify.
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