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Old 12-26-2019, 06:21 PM   #8032 (permalink)
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net negative

Originally Posted by redpoint5 View Post
I've got no horse in the game, so a determination that global warming is a net negative is a conclusion I'm willing to accept. I'll only get there if the debate is had though, and that involves acknowledging benefits from warming too.

Key to convincing me that there is a problem developing is determining when warming is projected to become a net negative assuming current projected trends. That requires reasonable effort to consider the most serious negative impacts weighed against the most beneficial ones. Talk of polar bear habitat is distracting because it has nothing to do with human well-being.

Certainly it makes sense to me that rapid change tends to be harmful/stressful for most creatures.
We'd have to define 'net negative.' If you're a Julian Simon or Bjorn Lomborg,there are no problems.
Rivers are going to dry up.Aquifers which are incapable of recharging are going to be depleted.The polar jet is going to deform the jet stream so much it will be impossible to make any long-range plans as to agriculture,planting,harvesting.Mountain hydro power in South/Central America is already collapsing.The fisheries are collapsing already. Those polar bears represent the end of sea ice,which means the end of sea-ice algae,which means the end of zooplankton and phytoplankton,krill,the entire marine food chain,as well as atmospheric oxygen.Sayonara lobster and King Crab,all crustaceans.The ocean pH will be so low it will be impossible to create carbonate shells and shellfish.
Methane clathrates are already bubbling up in the oceans.Ditto permafrost.As ice goes,water and surfaces darken,absorbing more solar radiation leading to greater melting ad infinitum,in a runaway greenhouse effect.Heat is already killing crops and field workers.At 105-F nothing can grow.All photosynthesis ceases.Tropical diseases will(are) spreading north.Parasites.Insects.Insect-borne disease.Fungus is killing crops as latent heat increases.Pine and bark beetle are killing forests.Extended drought turns forest into fuel depots.There's not a damned thing PG&E can do to stay ahead of fires,as they have no control over drought.As the Colorado River continues to dry there won't be any water for the fire fighters to work with.You ought to see Lake Mead from the air today!We've lost a third of the worlds' coral.Insects are hatching at times when there are no birds or fish to eat them.Ice melt and re-freeze prevents reindeer from feeding on their only food supply,lichens.Moose are dying from hypothermia after they scratch all their hair off,trying to get rid of ticks,which also spread a spongiform encephalitis,like mad cow disease,drilling holes in their brains like NFL quarterbacks.
Some experimental plants that responded favorably to warmth and additional carbon dioxide don't respond the same outside the lab.Some species will show a temporary benefit then flatline,with no additional benefit,while established monocultures suffer.
There may be local,regional,short-term benefits from carbon and warmth,but there's a point where heat will undermine it all.
At some point,re-insurance companies will tell insurance companies that they'll no longer deal with climate related catastrophe claims,or charge such for premiums,that no one will be able to afford coverage.FEMA will just pack up and leave Dodge.The Corps of Engineers ditto.There won't be anymore federal disaster relief.It would simply bankrupt the nation. Live by the sea,die by the sea.Live in the Heartland,flood there.Live in the forest,burn there.
We already have American climate refugees in Alaska.There are few roads there.Off-airport landings will (are) becoming problematic as snow/ice cannot support aircraft,the only means for supplies to some.
If you like Marshall-ese Island cooking,go to Arkansas.There all there now.
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