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Originally Posted by ldjessee00
1% of US Sales, world wide sales, or something else? Not sure what your 1% number is referring to. I know in some countries, it is now over 50% of sales. (Norway)
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1% is US sales. The Norway comment is meant to mislead people because they aren't relevant. It has the population of South Carolina, about midway in population size of our 50 states. They could all drive monster trucks and it wouldn't matter.
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How do you think a transition from ICE to BEV will look like? That during a transition, it would not start at a low percentage and build? And that some where during that transition it will have still less sales, but more and more manufacturers make more models available in some electrified format?
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Slow, very slow. It's been over a decade now, and we've reached 1% sales. The problem with EV sales isn't lack of models, or lack of charging infrastructure... the problem with EVs in general is the terrible battery.
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But as companies invest in battery technology because batteries are driving so many consumer electronics right now, any advancement would be a huge payday. So, this keeps companies investing, but it has to show promise, improvements, and technology does advance. If you had not noticed, the pace of change has picked up lately.
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Pace of what change? Technology innovation is stagnating in general. New iPhones are 0.2mm thinner, have stupid notched screens, and eliminated stereo jacks. The Chevy Bolt EV gained 8% driving range from 2016 until now.
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All warehouses used to all be on train spikes and trucks were only for local distribution...but that is not true anymore here in the US, but world wide... well, some countries kept up on keeping train technology up to date, so train is faster, cheaper, and a better way to travel in many countries.
If I wanted to ship iron ore or coal, by air hardly makes any sense.
Weight, density, and priority are all factors now.
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You've mentioned "keeping train technology up to date" several times now. What technology does the US lack that others have? There haven't been technological innovation in trains that is worth mentioning, or that would create a paradigm shift in transport. What your comments sound like to me is that you have the perfect solution to transport, and that the way the US does things is stupid.
I'm sure we'll see incremental improvement in all areas of transport, but I don't see any huge disruptions or big ideas yet to be implemented. The trucking industry is already competitive, so they have already considered aero improvements. Raw materials already ship by train.
My WAG for the nearterm automotive industry is an increase of plug-in hybrid sales. A 16 kWh battery captures the full federal tax credit, yet isn't so large that it drives the cost to manufacture way up. In fact, played correctly, there is about $300 of profit for every kWh of that 16 kWh battery, or $4,800.