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Let's say the car needs a new battery at 200,000 miles. At $4k, that adds $0.02 per mile to the operating cost.
At 52 MPG and $3 gallon gas, the cost in fuel per mile is 0.06 per mile
At the non-hybrid 34 MPG and $3 gas, the fuel cost per mile is $0.09 per mile.
So, you've got a $0.03 per mile spread between the hybrid and non-hybrid version, with a battery perhaps costing only an extra $0.02 per mile. It still pencils out in the favor of a hybrid.
This particular vehicle aside, hybrid technology makes more sense the larger the vehicle becomes. It would be an absolute no-brainer to go hybrid in an SUV or truck, but makes no sense at all in the Gen I Insight, for instance.
The other thing is that hybrid technology is as much about improving performance as it is improving fuel efficiency. The upcoming RAV4 Prime is going to have 300+ horsepower making it the most powerful in its class, while also being the most fuel efficient.
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