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Old 02-05-2020, 02:16 PM   #24 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by redpoint5 View Post
I expect price parity to be achieved eventually, but not in the oft-quoted 2025 timeframe. That would mean something being designed now incorporates the technology needed to hit price parity.

EVs don't just need to get a little more affordable, but $7,500+ more affordable. They already are barely selling with a $7,500+ tax advantage. Given this, pricing would need to come down about $10k for them to sell well. I don't know where manufacturers are going to find $10k in savings in 5 years. That's $2k per year.
I can't become an analyst,just to be able to vet what other voices in the industry are saying,so I'm at a disadvantage.
Historically,some products went on the market,selling at a loss,and over time,manufacturing efficiencies improved such that,in the long run,the product ended up profitable.
Good design can mean long product cycles between a refresh,or body-in-white.All R&D is recovered,all tooling,factory is paid off.Ford is famous for it.Back in the day,investors made all their money back in a matter of months,and went on to become fabulously wealthy.That's with a 1908-to-1923 production run,with only small,iterative,modular modifications added throughout the time frame of manufacturing.
In 1992,Chrysler Corp.needed $750/unit on a 48-month product cycle to be profitable.Volkswagen only made around $48/car,but they sold millions.
With thousands of fewer parts/vehicle,EVs may be in excellent position for profitability.Advertising would help the legacy carmakers,as with the Super- Bowl HUMMER ad.Charging infrastructure would help.Tesla has gone on without any help to provide a complete infrastructure for their customer.
Tesla's also young.It will be a while before retirement pension/healthcare fees will have to be factored into their fixed-cost pricing calculus.
Software improvements.Hardware improvements.Manufacturing improvements.Global platform and component sharing.C.Edward Deming,'get it right the first time out.' Hiccups instead of wheels in the ditch.
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