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Old 03-14-2020, 03:06 PM   #13 (permalink)
Xist
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According to It might feel like 2008, but here's how it's different we technically might not have a recession, "Assuming the number of cases peak in the next few months and abates by summer, [Diane Swonk, chief economist of Grant Thornton] says any downturn is likely to last six months or so."

They said the Great Recession was "set off by an overheated housing market."

According to this, the average home value peaked on 2006-11-01 at $216,003.80 ($275,038.77 in inflation-adjusted dollars). As of 2019-07-01, it was $271,768.42.

So, home prices may be as high, but it is entirely possible this is reasonable thirteen years later.

The article says that foot traffic to Walmart was down 16.5%, but was that nationwide or what?

A Walmart employee said that they were staffed for Black Friday and, as I mentioned elsewhere, their parking lot was packed yesterday.

Household debt was 134% of GDP in 2007 and Americans only saved 3.6% of their income.

It is 96% and 8% respectively now.

Nearly 9 million Americans lost their jobs in 2008. Unemployment more than doubled to 10%.

They say that it could go from 3.5% to 3.8 - 4.1%.

The Great Recession lasted 18 months. This may only last 6 months, which wouldn't qualify as a recession.

Quote:
The economy contracted in five of six quarters during the slump, falling as much as 8.4% in late 2008.
Current crisis. Most economists expect the virus to shave growth by one or two percentage points over the next couple of quarters.
The stock market plummeted 57% in 2018. The S&P 500 has already dropped about one-third of that.

Quote:
Corporations had $5.8 trillion in rated debt as of March 31, 2009[...]. Less than two-thirds, or about 65%, was investment grade, which ratings agencies determined was highly likely to be repaid.
Quote:
Corporations had $9.3 trillion in rated debt in 2019, [... b]ut a higher percentage of corporate debt today is considered to be investment grade at 72%.
However, they say that situation is "clearly deteriorating."

They say that banks are in a much better situation now and should manage fine.

The Fed's rate was 5.25% in 2007 and they slashed to nearly zero. Right now it is between 1 and 1.25%, giving them a fraction as much room.

It says we shouldn't need anything like President Obama's stimulus bill.

Quote:
Although prices have risen steadily in recent years, they’re just 22% above their peak. Homes aren’t overpriced, Faucher says. That means with mortgage rates low, housing can help offset troubles in the rest of the economy.
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