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A recession is 2 quarters of negative GDP growth. It really is as simple as that.
1Q2020 will be negative. 2Q2020 looks like it will be much, much worse. We are likely in a recession right now but it won't be officially declared until July 2020.
How long it will last depends on how well the world and the US government reacts to the current crisis. So far it isn't looking good. We squandered 2 months of advanced notice that this was coming. There still isn't a coherent plan of what we will do, how we will distribute needed resources, how we will keep companies and more importantly people financially afloat going forward. Right now there is no coordinated response and it is left to every State, City, Company, Individual to try to muddle through the best we can.
This morning I watched the head of FEMA tell states to buy any medical supplies they can on the open market. It really is everyone for themselves.
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