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Old 04-17-2020, 02:48 PM   #8674 (permalink)
redpoint5
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As Scott Adams points out, complex models are pretty much always wrong. Put in more than a couple of variables, and the thing has too many assumptions to forecast with anything resembling precision. Look at Coronavirus modeling. They are all "wrong".

That said, I expect trends to move in the direction predicted. What isn't clear to me is how exactly things will be made worse or better as things warm.
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