Quote:
Originally Posted by JSH
Attempting to time the market is a fools game
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Agree here with a caveat. I've been meaning to invest in the market all along but hadn't. When March saw a 1/3 drop in market value, it was a no-brainer to jump in. Predicting the bottom is impossible, but at some point it should become obvious that there exists an opportunity to invest at a great discount.
Had I been investing in the market all along (dollar cost averaging) I'd have been money ahead even if I had somehow managed to time the market pretty close to the bottom. Since I hadn't done that, the perfect opportunity was in March, and I had been discussing doing just that with friends but was slow to shuffle funds around and really get serious about the plan.
That said, I believe the rapid recovery was largely people realizing this opportunity to invest at a discount. This is the dead-cat bounce. I expect another drop in market value the next round of lockdowns and city burnings, and as businesses begin running out of options to stay afloat. We haven't experienced the trickle down effects this massive disruption has been to the full extent.
I expected the drop in market value to occur right about now, so I'm clearly wrong. Now I tend to think we're looking at January or so.