Hi guys,
Oil prices will go way up when it gets more scarce, as will natural gas; and I don't think that the supply of uranium is infinite.
I'm not just talking about solar PV. And not all solar PV has the same dangerous materials. Thin film PV roofing is far less energy intensive to make, and the payoff time is only part of the return.
I am including a broad range of renewable energy sources. I encourage you to read the Scientific American proposal called "A Solar Grand Plan":
A Solar Grand Plan: Scientific American
And I encourage you to watch Guy Dauncey's DVD called "The Great Energy Revolution":
http://www.earthfuture.com/publications/default.asp
Another good resource book is "Plan B 3.0" by Lester Brown:
http://www.earth-policy.org/Books/PB3/index.htm
http://www.earth-policy.org/Books/PB3/pb3book.pdf
If you generate electricity locally to where you use it, you only need to produce what you use -- the transmission losses are sometime quite high. Solar heat can be stored efficiently, and as the SA article suggests, other means like compressed air storage underground might be possible.
Wind keeps blowing at night, and if you spread out the turbine over a large enough area, you'll get power all the time; and avoid localized lulls. Offshore winds are pretty darn consistent in many places.
Wave and tidal power is always going to be there.
Methane from sewage (human and animal) and plant waste and trash is a constant we can rely on. This produces a high quality (non-water soluble) nitrogen rich fertilizer, than can replace chemicals that we get from carbon fuels.
Biodiesel from jatophra or algae or soybeans etc. can be developed. Jatophra is a scrub bush that grows on marginal land in drought conditions, and produces oil in a non-edible fruit. Wood alcohol from fast growing willow trees.
Small scale hydro is always possible. Cogeneration within a building is extremely efficient way to make electricity and heat.
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Nothing is perfect, and there is no single solution. Diversity and distribution are key -- as is efficiency! We could easily cut our energy use in half by efficiency alone.
We need to grow and eat locally grown, organic food -- both because it is much better for you, and tastes much better -- but it also doesn't use natural gas to make fertilizer, and diesel to produce and ship it! An average food item travels 1,500 miles before we eat it -- we think it's bad when fuel gets scarce, but if it also affects out food supply, it'll really get bad.
We also need to cut down on the amount of water we use. Did you know how much electricity is used to pump water up from very deep wells?
Guys, I'm so ready for this discussion -- it is my passion and I am pretty knowledgeable about it. Carbon based fuels are "so yesterday" in terms of their long term availability and their huge effects in the global climate.
And nuclear is a no go for me, too -- if only for the huge security threat of plutonium in the wrong hands. We're messin' with the strong force, and we do not need to! There is a huge excess of renewable energy, just sitting there for us to collect and use.
We have our brains, and we need to use 'em to do the right thing.