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Old 01-21-2021, 05:47 AM   #118 (permalink)
IamIan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snax View Post
I'm just going to say outright that their range and solar charge figures are bull****. They are absolutely based on perfect numbers, where people don't have to deal with stop and go, the sun is always shining, and heat or AC are never used. And it is for that reason that I do not trust this company to see long term success. Elon Musk understood that from the start - and has consistently exceeded stated projections with the final product. Aptera is promising the best, but will deliver something less.
I think it's 2 parts:
Part#1> Many people take what is actually said to mean something different. They hear what they want to hear.

Part#2> Allot of advertising (any OEM) is optimistic. Painting their product in the best light. Understandable they would do that. They are trying to sell the product after all.

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For example saying they can do 'up to' some number .. that is 'up to' .. the ideal best case .. but .. allot of normal people don't process it that way in their own heads .. they instead assume they will get that all the time , in any conditions.

Aptera publishes the bellow solar harvesting graph .. If people read it .. and processed it for what it is .. not just the best case .. then I think people would have a more realistic expectation.

For example Aptera has published and told people (look at chart) minimum sunny day could still be down as low as ~10.1 miles northern climates , sun low angle in sky , winter time , etc) .. and up to a max of ~41.6 mile southern climates higher angle in te sky , summer time , etc .. But when people are told 'up to 40 miles per day' , they don't think they might be the person who only gets 10 miles per day.

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I can say for my own 2 bits .. I think Aptera's numbers .. based on the data available .. are possible .. but a bit on the optimistic side.

Same thing with miles per kwh .. like any vehicle YMMV .. it will depend allot on the nut behind the wheel , and the route, and conditions .. There have been people who got 19MPG tanks from a stock Gen1 Insight , and people who got 165MPG tanks from the same Gen1 Insight .. based on what Aptera has published weight and aero .. I think about ~8miles per kwh as a yearly average is more realistic for most (nonhypermilers) , than 10 .. sure there will be people and times when it goes up to or even over 10 miles per kwh .. but I do not think that will be the yearly average for the average driver.

For example the in RI , using the last few years of ~400w solar installed on my own Gen1 Insight as a real world bench mark .. I would expect the max solar package of ~700watts on an Aptera to reasonably yield about ~500kwh per year ... at ~8m/kwh that's a more realistic here in RI yearly average around ~4,000 miles per year from max solar Aptera.

Entirely possible their professional PV install does a little better than my DIY versions .. about ~20% better is probably the realistic upper optimistic limit .. soo , maybe they get up to ~600kwh in the same conditions my DIY would have gotten ~500kwh from the same ~700w of PV.

Of course if someone happened to be parking with better solar panel to sun orientation (I just park between the lines in the parking lot) they might bump that up another ~20% .. up to around ~720kwh per year being .. what I would call idealistic/optimistic .. even with ~10m/kwh yearly avg that's ~7,200 m/yr.

Someone who looks at the solar chart says I'm in region 2 which claims a yearly average of about ~8,120 m / yr .. another ~13% .. ok sure .. like someone has in the real world gotten as high as 165 MPG from a gen1 Insight .. sure that ~8,120 m / yr might be 'possible' .. but .. definitely looks optimistic to me.


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One claim in particular that they've made .. that driving the aptera is more efficient than riding a bicycle .. well .. it's reasonable for a bicycle to get around ~30 miles per kwh .. and true only something like around ~25% (or less) of the wh from food you eat actually gets to mechanical work at your muscles .. soo from a food input to a leg pedal output .. sure 6~7 miles per kwh of food .. and at the slower speeds a bicycle would be traveling BEV mile/kwh do go up .. ok .. soo sure , what is said is technically true .. but .. that isn't how many people will think it means when they hear it .. instead of them thinking it means what was actually and technically said.
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