Quote:
Originally Posted by oil pan 4
No one seriously into earth quake prediction tries to predict M4 earthquakes or makes a watch area thr size of the lower 48. So that right there is a strawman. Plus no one cares about M4 earth quakes.
The latest science is detecting abrupt changes in the earth's magnetic field minutes before the fault snaps on M6 and bigger quakes.
USGS will continue with "there is no such thing as earth quake prediction" until after they them selves start issuing earth quake warnings. And then they will take credit for it.
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So, if the change in magnetic field changes at the speed of light, and the acoustic waves travel through the lithosphere much slower, you would always expect to 'register' the delta- magnetic-flux in advance of the P-waves / S-waves, even though they started from the same, identical, place and time.
There isn't any prediction capability. You're only experiencing a time-lag, between a 'field' velocity and a 'wave' velocity. Nothing unique.
And since the total stress required to fracture any fault asperity cannot be known in advance, and a small fracture and displacement could conceivably unzip a larger asperity, it seems that all seismic events would be of significant interest if they could conceivably trigger contiguous events.
It's difficult to place sensor - transmitters, which can withstand 1,500- Celsius, and over-pressures at 400-kilometers below ground. And until they can do so, we can expect these time lags to prevail.
A cardiologist can watch your blood pressure, but they can't predict if you'll develop an aortic dissection.