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I don't think EV batteries are going to get replaced on the used car market. They will just go 70, to 60, to even just 40% and people will live with whatever. Nobody is going to drop $20,000 to make a Tesla battery back to 100% on a 15 year old car. Just buy a new one if you need that range and somebody who can get along just fine with 100 miles will drive that Tesla until it gets in a fender bender and is totaled.
There is also no room in battery production to be swapping out 15 year old batteries. They will for a long time going forward need new batteries all to go into new cars. The batteries is the bottleneck.
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