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Old 10-10-2008, 08:23 AM   #8 (permalink)
SuperTrooper
Master EcoModder
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Auburn, NH
Posts: 451

Wicked Wanda - '99 VW Beetle GLS
90 day: 29.59 mpg (US)

Green Monster - '99 Ford Explorer Sport
90 day: 16.73 mpg (US)

Dad's Taxi - '99 Honda Odyssey EX
90 day: 24.23 mpg (US)
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I don't see Evs being ubiquitous for many years. Until batteries become inexpensive and meet mileage expectations of the general public you won't see widespread use outside of cities. There is also the problem of being able to recharge when travelling beyond the round trip "point of no return". There will need to be an increase in recharging infrastructure in order to make them less one-dimensional. This is why the Volt style hybrids are an important transition to a full EV.

The other factor is how long it takes to "turnover" the national vehicle fleet. The general period of time to do this is currently considered to be 20 years. This is the major difference vs cell phones and computers; those devices filled a void of ownership, while EVs have to REPLACE vehicles already in the fleet.

Factors affecting turnover:

Periods of economic downturn extend the turnover rate by a factor of 2 (every month of less than average vehicle sales slows the turnover rate by 2 months).

As EVs and hybrids become more available and desireable the value of ICE vehicles will drop, making trading in more difficult.

The current fleet is lasting far longer than previous fleets. The vehicles run longer with less unscheduled maintenance and body corrosion has been rendered a non-factor in fleet life.
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