[conradpdx]

Interesting points, but honestly I don't think it will take that long. 20 years on the fleet, give me break. You gotta remember the automobile while invented in the 1800's didn't take off until the 20's and wham it hit almost overnight, How can you say that it's going to take about 1/4 of the entire life span of the auto industry to turn things over? Think SUV's, think muscle cars -all fads that came in the blink of an eye and fads that appealed to nothing but pure vanity.

Economy is a larger driving force than image, one not look any farther than the current auto industry. What's killing Detroit (my old hometown) is that they believe people still want style. And they're right people do, but the problem is most cars pretty much look alike. Just like a pair jeans they're all pretty much the same other than the stupid label. Again just look at all the hype the PT cruiser got when it came out cause it actually kinda looked different than a Taurus.

But another thing that I believe is affecting auto sales right now is that people are waiting. What's another year or two in old "Bessie" if the new cars in a couple years is going to get double or perhaps triple the mileage and cost a lot less at the pump. Might as well pay "Bessie" off for the trade in while you wait rather than the roll the loan.

Remember that 12,000 miles a year is considered about average. That boils down to about 32 miles per day, easily in the range of modest electric cars. Most people really don't travel that much, it just seems like it with traffic. And every year the population gets more and more urban which means over time this figure will most likely drop. If I didn't work in construction and needed a truck to haul tools in I would have gone electric along time ago. I got nearly everything I need within 5 miles of my house. And if I wanted to go to skiing or to the beach I can easily rent a gas car.

Also let me add that I live in Portland Oregon and our citizenship is considered one of the "greenest" (personally I loath these labels). The pure electrics aren't uncommon. It's a rare day that I don't see a NEV now. The change is coming a lot faster than 20 years. In fact, I don't even gooseneck at the Zips anymore, they're just traffic. Perhaps it will take 20 years in your neck of the woods, but the revolution has started in other areas of the country. And because of this I honestly think that the Volt is gunna flop cause it's not going to come out in time (ie. on schedule for 2010), and when it does hit the streets it will be too late.