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Old 04-14-2022, 07:26 PM   #12 (permalink)
freebeard
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Quote:
The link about Spencer?
....
If I'm remembering Spencer correctly.
The question wasn't about his reputation, just the article.

Quote:
Introduction
Inferring Causation from the “Master Equation”
Correlation of dCO2/dt with Various Potential Forcings
Regression Models of Mauna Loa CO2
Conclusions
The Mauna Loa CO2 data need to be converted to year-to-year changes before being empirically compared to other variables to ferret out possible causal mechanisms. This in effect uses the ‘master equation’ (a time differential equation) which is the basis of many physically-based treatments of physical systems. It, in effect, removes the linear trend in the dependent variable from the correlation analysis, and trends by themselves have no utility in determining cause-versus-effect from purely statistical analyses.

When the CO2 data are analyzed in this way, the greatest correlations are found with global (or tropical) surface temperature changes and estimated yearly anthropogenic emissions. Curiously, reversing the direction of causation between surface temperature and CO2 (yearly changes in SST [dSST/dt] being caused by increasing CO2) yields a very low correlation.

Using a regression model that has one anthropogenic source term and three natural forcing terms, a high level of agreement between model and observations is found, including during the COVID-19 year of 2020 when global CO2 emissions were reduced by about 6%.
Did you find the article internally self-consistent?
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