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Originally Posted by JSH
Shortages from war in Ukraine and Russian sanctions
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This might be the most relevant aspect, now that Petrobras pricing policies are in line with international practices. Regarding the war in Ukraine, another matter of concern is the urea, widely used both as agricultural fertilizer and to make DEF/AdBlue/ARLA-32.
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South America going into winter which increases kerosene and fuel oil use
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I don't know about neighboring countries, but I usually see either wood or LPG being used more often as a heating fuel than kerosene and fuel oils in Brazil. At least since 2012, kerosene became much harder to find at regular gas stations, yet it may still be found at some and is mostly used by truckers to ease cold starts on trucks prior to 2012 model-year.
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Some South American countries are still subsidizing diesel
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Subsidizing regular Diesel fuel may still be effectively needed, but it doesn't address the problem properly. I am still a supporter of biodiesel and other so-called "renewable" alternate fuels, yet under some circumstances even biomethane which I tended to overlook seem promising. I have already seen some big-rigs converted to bi-fuel Diesel/CNG and some dedicated-CNG Scania big-rigs and buses.
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Until recently I had not seen diesel more than 91 octane gasoline.
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I remember when the father of a friend of my father complained about Diesel fuel being more expensive than ethanol, 19 years ago. Ethanol nowadays has been "cheap" mostly in São Paulo and Alagoas only, yet once in a while other states such as Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul also have competitive prices for ethanol against gasoline.