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Cummins does have a rock solid reputation and following in the commercial market. A ISB 6.7 paired with an Allison automatic dominates the medium duty segment. Cummins is so popular that other manufacturers are dropping out of the market. For example Daimler Truck will stop producing their medium duty engines in 2026 and will just buy from Cummins. There was no point in doing the development to meet EPA 2027 and Euro 7 which come into effect for 2027. Those commercial buyers are also buying cummins with a lot less power than the guys buying a Ram 3500. A ISB 6.7 powering a school bus, RV, utility truck is making 200 - 300 hp and 520 - 800 lb-ft. while the ISB 6.7 is a Ram 3500 is turning out 420 hp / 1075 lb-ft.
Which brings us to why diesel is almost dead in the USA - economics and emissions. Diesel fuel has been more expensive than regular gasoline in the USA since 2007 when we switched to ULSD to allow for particulate filters. On average 18% more per gallon. So yes, diesels get better fuel economy but the economics are about a wash when you pay more for the fuel. Add in the extra cost to buy the engine and the extra cost for maintenance and why would someone that cares about cost / mile buy a diesel? Also why buy a truck that goes into limp mode 500 miles after the smallest emission fault?
Then we talk about emissions. EPA 2027 drops allowed NOx by 75% and PM by 50%. It also more than doubles the "useful life" were the engine has to meet emission standards and extends the mandatory warranty for emission equipment. EPA 2027 is expect to raise the cost of a diesel by $10,000 - $15,000. So a diesel that isn't economical today outside of a few applications becomes even less economical in a few years. Gas engines are taking over the medium duty segment today and that will continue.
EPA 2027 will also be a problem for DI Turbo gas engines as will the light duty version Tier 4. Hitting emissions with a DI turbo gas engine will require particulate filters just like for a diesel. (They ecoboost Maverick gets one in 2025) I doubt gas engine buyers while embrace them any more than diesel owners have. They certainly aren't that popular in Europe where they started being used back in 2014. Particulate filters don't like stop and go traffic.
Personally I expect to see hybrids take over the ICE segment. A low compression NA gas engine paired with an electric motor can produce the power required without the emissions headache that comes with turbos and get great fuel economy. It will be interesting see Ford's solution for the Super Duties. They have already said it will be electrified. I'm wondering if they go all in a make the 7.3L Godzilla a hybrid or use one of the smaller V8s - or both. Or do they go RAM's route and do a serial hybrid like the ramcharger?
Jason
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