2021 US Hurricane season
 

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center anticipated up to 21 named storms for the 2021 Atlantic basin Hurricane season.
We're basically at the end of the season, and we've seen 21 named storms.

Yeah that's typical for a solar activity ramp up year.

solar activity
 

NOAA knew in advance what the sun was going to do for the next 365-days?

.
Prediction [is not equal to] prophesy

:eek:In 2019 we already knew 2020 was going to be mostly a solar minimum year, that's what happened and every solar forecast literally everywhere has 2021 and 2022 as being solar activity ramp up years. NOAA has a solar activity forecast and it has been right on the money so far.
The only people this is a surprise to is the truly inept.

solar forecast
 

So where is the room for space weather catastrophes?

The 12,00 year cycle and the 600 year subcycle. It's been reliable so far.

Carbon 14 events are about 1,000 to as little as 300 years apart.

12,000-year cycle
 

So we can expect global human extinction this year?

Carbon-14
 

So, before the year ends, NOAA has forecast all solar magnetic activity to cease, and cosmic particles to amp up Carbon-14 production?

Why should we? The fact that you and all of us are here shows that it hasn't happened before. Divide 12K into 400K and you get tens of times we've weathered the space weather storms.

why should we
 

Your S-O video told us that we're entering a 12,000-year extinction cycle right now.
What are we to think?

No it means it hasn't happened during our recorded history or at the prehistoric human places we have been able to investigate. There are numerous stories of plagues, floods, extinction so one could surmise the survivors commenting if it did happen.

Is he story of Atlantis true? We don't know because there isn't a location we can inspect.

We're to think your putting words in S0's mouth.

The 12,000 year cycle is the Solar Superflare Cycle. iopscience.iop.org/article/: The Astrophysical Journal --Statistical Properties of Superflares on Solar-type Stars: Results Using All of the Kepler Primary Mission Data

6000 Year Disaster Cycle --Jul 8, 2021

It's been the Heinrich-Bond Cycle since July.

Amazing, everything you just said is wrong.
Carbon 14 events are from solar super storms.
I don't get how you even see any of that as a possibility.

words into S-O's mouth
 

Please see # 506 ( permalink ), #5, at the Climate-Change thread.
It's the end of the world.

Carbon 14
 

I'll bring my notes for next time.

Are your notes in cuneiform on clay tables?

Carbon - 14 event
 

Since I'm on the computer, I went ahead and looked.
* Carbon-14 is created when cosmic particles interact with Nitrogen-14 in the upper reaches of the atmosphere.
* Earth's magnetosphere typically shields us from most cosmic radiation.
* S-O's predicted geomagnetic meandering, reversal, return, whatever, very soon to happen, will expose Earth to increased cosmic radiation.
* Which will increase Carbon-14.
* Geomagnetic reversals have never been associated with any radio-isotopic evidence for extinction events, but that hasn't stopped S-O from claiming to the contrary.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* If we have a truly super-flare event, there won't be anyone around to talk about it.
* If we have another Carrington-like event, we'll need lots of replacement transformers, and crews to swap them out.
* We'll probably lose some satellites, electronic communications capability, along with GPS.

notes
 

Smoke signals. Hashish. Oregano when strangers visit. They can't seem to tell the difference. Always leave bragging.

That's the normal mechanism for slow and steady carbon 14 production.
This is a carbon 14 event.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/774%...arbon-14_spike
All signs point to the sun as the source.
Every carbon 14 event makes carbon dating less accurate as you look further back.

1.2 = 20?
 

I'm looking at your link at Wiki.
They start out talking about a 1.2% increase which is 20-times the normal background variation rate.
0.06% should be normal. And 0.072% the 'spike.'
This isn't helpful.

solar source
 

And it looks like 'life' isn't affected, only technology. Plants, animals, and people are fine. No catastrophe.

Lot in translation. Anyone?
Airplanes in flight, pacemakers, migrating animals...

This?
Rocket Lab CEO on the newly unveiled Neutron Rocket

It's a boxed cavity pace Muir on the way up and a full boat tail on the way down.

Could be a reference to a ploy airmen at Chanute airplane patch used on the security police: baggie full of oregano stashed somewhere random semi hidden. The daring would use a baggie that contained cannibus and wash it, some would find a dog in estrus but mostly they were just bags of spice. I believe the intent was to either annoy the security personnel or cause them to not trust the drug dogs. The result was a rapid congregation of irritated SP and isolation of a large area for a longish time.
Had a roomie who did this after his PCS orders.

Other than that, I got nothing.

'life'
 

1) I'm using 'life' within the context of space weather 'catastrophes', or 'extinction events' on Earth.
2) 'Carrington Event-like-events' are not associated with any loss of life, just burnt-out electronics.
3) Whole-building spike-protectors might isolate homes, businesses, and medical facilities from utility-interfaced circuit damage.
4) Spare transformers ( if for-profit utility bean-counters will allow the cost ) and already-trained linepersons would immediately replace the fried equipment once the storm passed.
5) Aircraft inertial navigation gyros are impervious to any atmospheric disturbance.
6) Major Solar Flares are no predictor of solar storms, as no one can predict how an impinging field would be oriented.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7) As to Geomagnetic Reversals:
* There have been 800 Reversals over the past 160-million years, with no extinction events, nor any proxy evidence for extreme cosmic ray bombardment ( rock weathering ).
* There have been 14-Excursions over the past 780-000 years, with no extinctions or extreme cosmic ray bombardment ( rock weathering ).
* Polarities average 200,000 years.

This?
 

No. #506 ( permalink ) is an S-O video listing five 'Outrageous' things about the Earth.
I was addressing # 5 on the list, which is about imminent space weather catastrophes on Earth.

Thanks, but I noticed this:
The Richat Structure.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...TER_Richat.jpg

It's not 'down in the bottom of the ocean' as Donovan sang:
It was scoured down to bedrock by cataclysmic floods from the Northeast, ten times the size of the Eastern Washington scablands. The actual city was ground to dust and deposited at the bottom of the Atlantic to the Southwest.

Meanwhile the Cascadia Subduction Zone is rockin' and rollin' directly West of my current location. :eek:

The problem with transformers is the really big ones that allow for transmission and sub transmission. These are really big transforms they are made to order, from Korea now, and need up to 1 year lead time when everything is working. No one keeps spares on hand. When one of these big ones goes out the power company uses smaller obsolete, retired, truck mounted transformers to run the sub station at reduced capacity. Power companies rent them from each other if they can't fill the need in house.

corporate-owned utilities and big transformers
 

Thanks for pointing out a potential benefit of publicly-owned utilities.;)

Atlantis the Lost Continent
 

Writings before Plato, place Atlantis west of Gibralter, which would be beyond the known world at the time, so it makes N. Africa a problematic location, even if it's location were right along the coastline at the time.
And there's always the possibility that 'Atlantis' were merely some Homeric-esque, Canaanite metaphorical tool, used in storytelling, about some aspect of the spectrum of human potential or folly.

Advagrid, the masshole owned energy conglomerate is known for cutting the maintenance budget which always involves cutting the numbers of spare parts on hand. Because with the just in time global supply system what could possibly go wrong, just order what you need when you need it.

I didn't find the original text (Solon via Plato) but some sources say beyond rather than 'west of'.
Then you have the place names. The Atlas Mountains, named for King Atlas, the reputed first king of Atlantis. The dry waterfalls to the North. The sea salt all over the ground.

"known world"? Ask the Olmecs.

Ok so we don't know where ( kinda my point).

How about when? (Could be even harder but would lead to where) the Mediterranean formation is within human evolution of several subgroups capable of civilization

Do isolated subcultures like the Incas or Mayans have traditions of a sunk city? How about the Australian aboriginal, Thai, Hawaiian, or Japanese. The natives of the western Atlantic subtropics do but everyone generally ignores them.

When was the end of the Younger Dryas.

There are legends about the [re-]filling of the Mediterranean basin, and of course the Black Sea and Doggerland Banks are littered with archeological sites.

duckduckgo.com/?q=mud+flood and duckduckgo.com/?q=tartaria
https://codigooculto.com/wp-content/...da-768x432.jpg
https://codigooculto.com/wp-content/...da-768x432.jpg

Couple of flood events on the Mediterranean, including when it was an ocean before Africa arrived and may or may not had human(ish) habitation then and the final one where it looks like today.

Pillars of Hercules
 

Yes, this is what's been described as the end of the known world. If 'west' as mentioned in whatever I was looking at was correct, it would place Atlantis in the Eastern Atlantic Basin.
The guts of the story could date to before Sumer and Babylonia, and passed down only as oral traditions, morphing and embellishing with every telling.
There's a bunch of that in the earliest Hebrew texts.
My opinion is that, Atlantis was never a place, just a construct used for thematic storytelling. Like Troy.
Long ago, major floods came twice a year, and biblical archaeologists think now that, there was no single Noah flood event, just lots of flood events. They can't even get the shape of the ark correct. The earliest stella presents it as something like a 220-foot diameter circle.
We could look at the plate tectonics and volcanism of the period. Earthquakes, sea floor subsidence. Tsunamis. Underwater mud slides.

Younger Dryus
 

I think it was 12,000 years ago.

It was -- until the geological uplift put it a thousand feet above sea level.

Thanks for pointing that out. Irving Finkel is one of my favorite BBC presenters.

youtube.com/results?search_query=finkel+noah%27s+ark


https://d11p0alxbet5ud.cloudfront.ne...'s+Ark.jpg
www.broadcastnow.co.uk/opinion/critics/tv-critics-the-real-noahs-ark-doctor-who-sunday-night-at-the-palladium-the-suspicions-of-mr-whicher/5077543.article