climate & food insecurity
 

https://news.mongabay.com/2021/08/a-...food-security/
Some issues which food 'producers' are facing:
* Avian cholera ( fulmars,murres, crested auklets
* Bartonella bacterium ( fleas/rodents- human organ damage
* borrelia burgdorferi ( Lyme disease ) black-legged tick, white-tailed deer, white-footed mouse
* Brucella spp. bacteria ( fur, leather, meat )
* crop failure due to pumped-aquifer failure, due to recharge failure, due to megadrought
* crop failure due to dessication
* crop failure due to drought-related irrigation canal failure
* crop failure due to flooding ( extreme rain events )
* crop failure due to fungus ( Pst Yellow rust, wheat , Stem-rust ( wheat ))
* crop failure due to hail (high-precipitation super cells )
* crop failure due to pest infestation ( Spodoptera frugi perda, Fall Armyworm,larvae )
* crop losses due to lack of pollinators
* crop losses due to leaf litter losses
* crop losses due to ocean inundation and soil salination
* crop failure due to photosynthesipause, @ 104-F stomata closure
* crop failure due to river losses ( loss of mountain glaciers )
* crop loss due to soil erosion
* crop losses due to soil microbe losses
* crop failure due to wildfires
* cattle losses due to loss of pasture
* cattle losses due to loss of drinking water
* coral algae expulsion
* coral bleaching
* coral die-off
* Distemper virus ( seals, otter )
* drought instead of rain
* fly strike disease, sheep
* 75% of fruit production threatened ( antioxidants )
* Hantavirus ( rodent feces/urine- nepropathia epidemica hemorrhagic fever ( can be lethal - bank voles ))
* Heliobacter pylori bacteria ( human stomach cancer )
* ice-fishing threatened
* insect hatch timing shift
* lake fishing
* lungworm ( musk oxen )
* non-krill eaters eat krill-eaters
* ocean pH, carbonic acid, acidification extinction of all 'shelled' marine life
* ocean reef overfishing
* Parapoxvirus ( fur, leather, meat )
* Polar bear starve as without sea ice, cannot access ring seal, bearded seal
* rain instead of snow
* river fishing
* sea-ice algae ( beginning of marine food chain ) decline as sea ice declines precipitates krill decline ( 99% of Antarctic lifeforms, Commercial trawlers, pharmaceuticals, Omega-3 dietary supplements, tropical fish food, Alaskan King Crab, Arctic cod, baleen whales, frozen fish-sticks, McDonald's fish sandwich, squid, penguin, seal, humans, farm-raised salmon, Antarctic silverfish ( collapsed ), skuas, crabeater seal, leopard seal, Blue whale, Minke whale , Polar bear )
* shoreline fishing
* snow instead of ice
* tick-borne encephalitis
* Toxoplasma gondi ( beluga whales )
* Typhoid ( poultry )
* warming oceans cyanobacteria displace fish and phytoplankton, block solar depth penetration to deeper-dwelling organisms
* zoonotic diseases: Ebola ( bushmeat ), Nipah Virus ( pigs ) [ fruit bat droppings ]
* In 2021, Russia lost 40% of the wheat harvest, suspended exports, sending food prices through the roof, precipitating the Arab Spring.
* In 2018, El Salvador lost 90% of their coffee crop to leaf rust, something that previously didn't exist there.
* In 2021, the Champagne region of France lost their entire grape harvest, in vineyards operating since 1700.

Just more fear mongering trying to blame social economic changes on climate change. Good job trying to spin a completely man made economic collapse made worse by the lab grown pandemic as climate change.

I read the first sentence of each paragraph for a while but didn't finish.

The conclusion is inarguable.
The headline puts it in perspective "A world of hurt: 2021 climate disasters raise alarm over food security". Permaculture will persist after the fertilizers corporate farming employs become Unobtainium.

I argue that not only can humans recover from drastic climate shift, they are most capable to do so of all the species.

Evidence for the non-survival of the human species will be a declining population. I suspect that will be more due to cultural preference than naturally imposed limitations.

declining pop.
 

Well, you can watch it right now in pastoral Kenya. They've just lost 90% of their cattle and they're killing each other.
If Madagascar isn't rescued right now, you can watch it there too.

Kenya population still growing at 2.3% at last reading. That's quite a large growth rate compared to US zero percent (excluding immigration).

Kenya now
 

Why not both?

argue
 

Your argument is noted.
There's a very high probability that things will not unfold as you imagine.
The required calculus must include things as they are. I've no experience so far, that your calculus actually reflects reality, only a deficit of crucial information.
Otherwise we'd know it from your argument.
'Principle of Undetermination'
'Postmodernist Epistomology'
'Unchained Foucauldian politics'
'Ontological'

Are you just making things up?

Humankind has persisted through (round numbers: 200,000/12,000) Cataclysms ....so far.

making
 

1) Nope!
2) Humankind will not persist unless we do what the scientists recommend.
3) They have the best measurement technology.
4) There's no one better at 'arithmetic'.
5) Their ability to pastcast (sp?) and forecast has a pretty good record.
6) People that can shoot a BB through a birds eye, at a million miles has my attention and respect.
7) Some economists who would dismiss scientific consensus on climate can't even achieve consensus on what caused the Wall Street Crash of 1929.
8) Bless their pointed little heads.

Just curious to those with a catastrophist prediction, at what approximate year should we begin to see declining human well-being (as a whole, not anecdotes)? In the 60's, Population Bomb predicted global starvation in the 70's and 80's. Defenders of the problem as presented claim it was only wrong by timeframe. That begs the question again of when that will become a problem? Predictions are not useful if there's no time frame attached. Grossly missing the time frame also casts massive doubt on the predictor's understanding.

curious
 

1) Your making contextual comments without providing context.
2) 'When' is probably the most important issue, as those up close and personal to the 'problems' are witnessing non-linear accelerations with positive feedback loops.
3) If you'd followed any of the actual science you wouldn't be making such uninformed comments.
4) You should no what the atmospheric concentrations are.
5) You should know what Earth was like the last time those concentrations existed.
6) If you knew, you wouldn't sleep nights.
7) And you'd be out in the streets demanding that someone do something.
8) It would only be rational.
9) There is no doubt as to what the field scientists are witnessing, and the implications.
10) Any doubt you might possess would be borne out of your own ignorance.

I already know CO2 concentrations are about 400 ppm, up from about 280 before the industrial revolution. It's way up from a recent geologic low of about 180, which is barely enough to support plant life.

I know these increased concentrations are directly responsible for the "greening" of the earth as plant growth increases.

How any of that will play out in the future is unclear, which is why I don't lose any sleep.

2nd paragraph
 

You may 'think'.
Or you may 'believe.'
I don't believe that you 'know' any such thing.
The logic-tight compartments of your mind appear ever ready to dismiss any new intelligence.

"No, you."

Xactly what I was thinking.

I'm more happy to be wrong than most, and more eager to annoy any arbitrary tribe. Keeps me and them on their toes.

Just a question about nuclear power in your view.
 

With all that you have said and listed above: do you support the use of nuclear power?

I have family that work in Kenya as physicians.
 

They have worked in Kenya since the 60s. They say this drought is not the root of the problem. The problem is population.

This is true all across the globe.

So, how do you control population?

Demand that all women be educated! That is all you need to do! Education is the best contraceptive.

What if the Next Ice Age Started on Time?

I concur with the question, but question his time frame. He assumes a 10,000-year cycle, whereas I think it's more like 12,300 years.

We're to believe the earth has never had changing climates?

Men created the great oxidation event, for example?

Bots :rolleyes:

If all climate change is man made then how did the last ice age end?
And the one before that?

We were trolled by a bot.

....and I missed it. Like oil pan 4 I (occasionally) quote them knowing they will disappear.

Did the sig line say 'new accounts can't post links?

Mindless bots and real people are often indistinguishable from one another.

No, and it was more sophisticated because it was on topic to each thread it responded to.

Problem was, they were all 2 sentence throw-away statements.

I actually responded to the first one as if a human had wrote it, but then read the other ~7 posts and they all took on the same form as the one op4 quoted. I then revised my comment in light of the Turing Test failure.

As SA has been discussing lately about how artificial relationships will be preferred by some people, I had the thought that someday we'll come to prefer bot posts to human ones.

While humans can "read the room" and adjust strategy to improve effectiveness, bots will be deadly precise at that, learning exactly what motivates people and how to reward folks with dopamine when they respond the way the bot has been designed persuade.

I don't know what the counter to highly effective mind control will be. Those highly susceptible to programming, which is the majority of people, would need to be programmed at an early age in counter mind control, and I'm not sure that would be very effective because their very nature is such that it conforms to external suggestion.

Maybe in the future we just plug those people into the Matrix because that's where they want to be, and the few that want to pursue truth and new frontiers can adventure on.

birthrate
 

The layperson logic they peddle is that, since infant mortality is so significant, they over-procreate, with the hope that enough will survive to continue the bloodline.
A guarantee of a healthy birth is considered the best contraceptive. They take it from there.

The "education is the best contraceptive" idea seems insufficient as an explanation, as if knowing how babies are made or something is the primary limiter of birthrates.

The reason education limits birthrates is because it's expensive and takes all of a woman's reproductively prime years. No time or money for children. The last thing a woman learns as she finally finishes school and establishes a career is what geriatric pregnancy is, followed by reproductive therapy. That is of course, if she can attract a male whom she also finds attractive.

[RE: #25 -- things move fast] Are you sure?
Clowns to the left of us, jokers to the right; here we are stuck in the middle.....
edit:
Current thinking is that Zion was just another level of the Matrix. It explains some plot holes.

glacials / interglacials
 

* The last four ice ages ( G'u'nz, Mindel, Riss, and W'u'rm ) all saw abrupt warming associated with an increase of 80-100 ppmv carbon dioxide.
* The last deglaciation ( 14,700- 13,000 years ago ) was interrupted by the 'Antarctic Cold Reversal'.
* At 12,900 years ago there was an abrupt, massive global cooling, over 1,300-years in the Northern Hemisphere.
* At 12,000-years ago, carbon dioxide was 180 ppmv.
* At 10,000-years ago, the sea level rise reopens the Bering strait Arctic ocean circulation.
* Half of a Milankovich Obliquity cycle was in play with solar insolation.
* At 8,500 B.C.E. we hit the Younger Dryas, Methane Minimum.
* At 8,000 B.C.E. the Nares Strait ocean circulation opened.

" education"
 

It's learning that birth isn't an automatic death sentence for as many infants which creates the inflexion point in birthrate.

'very effective'
 

Even PhD Vance Packard, who wrote in the 1950s about the psychology of advertising, admitted that he had no superpowers to protect himself from all manner of come-ons.

I don't like that explanation either. I don't think people consciously decide to have more babies because a lot of them don't make it, nor do I believe they limit their reproduction consciously by knowing they have access to better medical care. Maybe that can factor in, but primary explanations have to reside outside of conscious decision-making.

Our time has to be filled by something. For almost all of human history, that has been making babies and dying relatively young. Some cultures are still more like those primitive ones. When opportunity to do other things presents itself, more of us take those alternatives.

There's nothing special about school compared with other similar alternatives.

If I had another program that required one to give all they had (both time and money) for the promise of being better off in the future, we'd get similar results.

As a thought experiment, I'm imagining what would happen if women went to school when they were young, but were most attractive and reproductively fit when they were older, like 65 after they retire (and they would live healthy to a hundred or something). Would education primarily limit their birthrates?

Alright, it's a bit of a stretch to imagine.

Some protection can be learned.

Mostly it's a disposition. My nature is to assume anything being pitched at me is a deception, and to question all authority. Being told isn't good enough for me, I need it explained.

The other thing is I value understanding over knowledge. While they are codependent, those more inclined to settle for knowing something are likely more susceptible to deceit since they don't understand the systems in which they interact. Their ability to think sophisticatedly is limited to what they know.

Countervailing forces....

Variety of sources...

Adams points to techniques that work even when you know how they work.

The most important part is being aware of the devil within, and being more afraid of that then the devils around.

Jordan Peterson talks about how he studied the biggest human atrocities and asked himself how a majority of a population could abide in such evil. He realized given all the same exact circumstances, it's highly probable he would succumb to the same evil.

Simply not deceiving oneself about what darkness lay in wait within them helps to prepare a response. Decide beforehand what lines cannot be traversed and fear the consequences of allowing that to happen more than the transgressors.

.

Aleksander S.
 

'Gulag Archipelago'?

One of Jordan Peterson's most significant sources.

'Gulag'
 

It's a worthwhile read.:)

All those brilliant authors are in my read queue... except I keep distracting myself with important things like Technology Connections explanation of how a dishwasher works, and why detergent pods are inferior to plain ol' powder.