The Decline of the Manual... But a Glimmer of Hope?
 

Very telling article on the quantity of manual transmissions out there.
The decline of manual transmissions in two graphs — and proof they're coming back

Particularly in this graph:
https://s2.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/e...eenshot_81.jpg

In 2011, a mere 311,618 manuals were produced. :(

The good news? By model year 2013, it was up to 452,232

I'm always interested in statistics and charts. Thanks for sharing.

I consider myself lucky to have one of the rare 6-speeds found in less than 6% of the TSXs sold... if only they would make the 6th gear tall like they made in the 5-speed automatic.

Interesting that there were still 3-speed manuals available into what looks like the 90's...I wonder what trucks had that option?

If I can swap a transaxle out of the 5th gen FWD corolla into my car, I'll have a 5th gear tall enough for me to do 2900 RPM at 75 MPH with 185/65/R15s. Manuals are going to die around the same time human driven cars do.

40 years ago the '76 models were THE LAST CONVERTIBLES.

Oops. :rolleyes:

Interesting..... and I was reading an article how Dodge made a mistake offering the dart with a manual and how they only sold 6 units. :eek:

I taught my 16 and 14 year old nephews how to drive a manual in a school parking lot a couple years ago.

Later I asked them if they'd rather have an auto or manual and they both said auto, even though neither so much as stalled the car.

Interestingly enough, my nieces are now 16 and 14, maybe they'll take over since women are taking over.

Manuals don't stand a chance with young drivers now that smartphones are here. Playing with the phone is much more important than actually having to drive the car.

Yeah, that's interesting. Ancient technology along with the 3-speed automatic slushers that the Metro/Suzukiclones had right up to 2001. Shame on them!

I'm doing the same with my 16 year old nephew now. I'm not sure which transmission he likes more just yet. He seems to enjoy the challenge (he loves driving in general), but afterward he said very seriously: "I didn't realize how much more there was to think about to drive a standard."

I hope that is repeated with the last manual trannies in light duty pickups (as of '09 or so?)

I love driving a manual, I love not having every automatic fail me sooner or later, but I extremely hate the lack of good manuals in the salvage yards. There's no getting a used T56 for under $ 1500. And that's if you can find one.
Like an idiot I sold the new F40-MT2 I got for $ 400 back when GM had surplused from the '06 G6 GT 3.9L, how stupid was that? I was desperate, but now those can't be had at any price.

They say that texting and driving is more dangerous than drinking and driving. How about this: 5,190 alcohol-related crashes in Arizona during 2,013, out of 107,348--4.8%. Motor-vehicle crash fatalities rose in 2013

How many were texting?

My wife is a pro with a manual, and even has efficient driving practices, but she still prefers the auto because it's easier for her to eat breakfast in the car on her way to work.

I used to eat, shave, and brush my teeth while rowing the gears in stop and go traffic, opening the door to dump the whiskers and spit. Of course, I am a pro at knee driving :p I can hold a more steady line around a corner with knee driving than the typical motorist.

I'm not advocating these things, just sharing my previous experience. I also see no reason why texting should cause more accidents, but obviously it does. Holding the phone out in front and taking quick glances is similar in the amount of time it takes to check mirrors, so I would think it would have a similar amount of risk. It seems people spend more than a quick glance looking at their phones, and do so while in close traffic.

"More than 5,000 people die each year as a result of being distracted while driving"
"Among the various distractions, [...] texting while driving was particularly perilous. A 2009 study focusing on drivers of larger vehicles and trucks concluded that texting raised the risk of a crash by 23 times compared with nondistracted driving."

Is it not quite as dangerous in cars?

"Shockingly, texting drivers took their eyes off the road for each text an average of 4.6 seconds -- which at 55 mph"

Speed limits on most freeways here are 65 MPH, so everybody drives 75, and therefore would travel 506 feet in 4.6 seconds.

"A Harris poll last year found that [...] 37 percent said they engaged in texting."
Texting Drivers Take Eyes Off Road 5 Seconds On Average: Study

How about the friend that asks me why I did not respond to her Facebook post, so I pull out my phone, answer, and then she pulls out hers, and responds, while I keep saying "No! It is not important! You are driving! It can wait!"

At least her 90 Civic is a smaller "guided" missile, unlike the Suburban and minivan that she was driving, not that it would do me any good if she finally hits something.

I have usually been able to type on my phone without looking at it, but I am not sure how much that actually helps.

I believe I was rear-ended by a kid that was texting. He said his foot slipped off the clutch of his Ford Ranger, but that doesn't affect the foot doing the braking. Based on the damage, I would estimate he was doing about 25mph, which was the speed limit and I was stopped at a red light. In other words, no attempt to slow was made.

It was my birthday, and his insurance ended up buying the 1996 Legacy with 245,000 miles on it for $2,500. Just the birthday present I wanted.

That is shocking. I can't imagine 4.6 seconds is the average. That means that half the texters take their eyes off the road for longer than 4.6 seconds! Much longer than a quick glance, as if checking the mirrors.

It used to be easier to type without looking, but I haven't been able to do it since owning a touch screen. The ol' Blackberry was a breeze to touch type.

Toyota Tacoma can still be purchased new with a manual. If you want a regular cab (2 doors only, not extended cab or 4-door) though, you had better go get one now; those will not be offered in 2015.

I was thinking full-size trucks, but forgot to type it. The Colorado/Canyon also still has a manual.

I thought the heavy duty full size trucks do as well... but a quick check yielded nothing from either Ford or Chevy, however Dodge still has the optional manual behind a Cummins.

'Optional' manual? Does that mean their 'standard' transmission is really an automatic? :P

Bah, manuals are no longer the "standard" tranny for anything.

Yeah, you could get Dodge/RAM half-tons in 2009 with a stick, but that was only 10% of fleet production. I never did find one when I bought my '07. Now you can only get an HD truck with a Cummins with a stick. Everything else is a slush box.

Ditto. I grew up on manuals, taught my daughter how to drive one. I plan to teach my grandkids as well. I've searched and can't find a decent used one[edit, T56] for under $2K. At that price, you might as well shell out a few hundred more and get a new one from American Powertrain or something. I'd like to find an NV3500 or Getrag 238 salvage to swap into my truck, but the last ones I found in the spring have already sold. A guy on DodgeTalk did a T56 tranny swap and got another 2 mpg, he told me.
By the way, all these autos mean that most car thieves don't know how to drive a stick shift. :thumbup:

For the discussion on texting and driving:

Even if one looks at his phone for as long as he looks at his mirror, it is still different than looking at the mirror. The mind does not change its thought pattern very much when looking at the mirror, whereas the texting is a huge jump. No longer is defensive driving the goal, but rather driving and thinking about what is going on at work or at home. If you run into someone while looking at your mirrors, you will still have a much better reaction time than when texting.

Ram 1500s haven't had manuals since 08, the last year of the DR body.

Hmm, maybe I was thinking of 09 dakotas.

I had my cellphone connected to a handsfree system on my motorcycle for exactly 1 day. During my first phone conversation, I found that my ability to focus on the many tasks involved in riding was diminished to a point that I was uncomfortable.

That said, I believe active braking systems will be a standard feature in 5 years. The incidence of collisions will plummet by the end of the decade. As always, people will not get better, rather the technology will.

Yeah, 09 was the last year the Dakota had a manual- but only if you got the 3.7 engine. And probably manual windows, no AC, etc.

Has she never seen "Wheels of Tragedy" from 1963? That's a good, awesome film. I recommend it!

My Grandfather was born in the late 1920s and was a truck driver for most of the time when working. He lived through the 1950s to even the early 2000s as a truck driver, and apparently a very good one since he lived through all that and is still around to talk about it. And I heard this from a car inspector; Grandfather was doing overtime, and that may be normal for some people but my Granddad was doing triples. I haven't talked about this sort of thing with my Grandfather much and trucking companies have put in regulations now, but would you suggest I go talk to my grandfather about things like this? The thought of writing a book about it like the Foxfire books even came to mind. Hm, That's actually a good idea; Is anyone else interested? I think a lot of younger drivers can benefit from it.

And we become MORE reliant on technology (as a people, not US here).

I remember once watching a valet try to park my one ton diesel manual truck.
After stalling it numerous times he just got out.
My dad and mom were behind me in his decked out dually. Dad says out the window "same transmission".
We both pulled past two spots and simultaneously backed both trucks in.
My wife, watching from the valet stand, said it looked like synchronized swimming.
The valet still had his mouth open when dad and I walked up.
We felt bad though and gave him a nice tip anyway.
Nowadays, that would never happen.

I saw a kid driving down the street with his hands at 11:30 and 12:30, holding a "smart" phone. He could see everywhere except where his car was going.

/I guess that's off-topic. Sorry.

I'd have liked seeing that transpire...

Unfortunately, it's more and more common today. I'm certain it takes a lot of attention off of driving, more so than shifting gears. Redpoint's right; it is distracting. I remember the first time I tried to call and drive; I had to hang up 'cuz I nearly ran off the road.
By the way, hands at 1130 and 1230 isn't fooling anyone but him.

This makes me ask the question, what is it exactly that is driving manufacturers to shove out more slush boxes? I remember hearing that Dodge (a couple years back) had done a survey saying more folks wanted autos, but they didn't ask me... I understand technology is making autos better; maybe that's part of it.
*So, does anyone think there's a market for a business swapping slush boxes for manuals? Could help spur the movement...

As I am trying to get a OBD-II bluetooth dongle to work with my smartphone... :p

All cars used to be manual shifting, and automatic transmissions were a luxury feature.

Americans Humans are lazy (I have a Roomba and Neato), and not shifting a gearbox is easier than shifting one.

The manufacturers don't push autos, the consumers do.

I just installed the pro version of Torque on my phone after having smashed my UG in the door jam. Can't say I miss the UG anymore...

Smart phones can be had for $10 new, and the Elm237 can be purchased for less than $10, so for less than 20 bucks, anyone driving a 1996 or newer car can have a fantastic gauge.

Good luck Xist!

Exactly. If the manufacturer makes a pile of manual vehicles and they don't sell, they are going to cut back the following year. Rinse and repeat until the manual is dead.

They aren't catering to people who are fiscally conservative either. Most of us on this site buy only used cars because we can't/won't pay the price of a new car. Many economy cars are getting near $20k now, so what's a little more to fit it with an automatic, right? You're financing the darn thing for 7 years, so you'll hardly notice!

I don't think it's that cut & dry: I'm the epitome of lazy in most things, but I love shifting gears myself. Even in city driving it makes the drive much more enjoyable (disclaimer: I rarely face stop & crawl).

The way they're marketed (here at least), there's more profit in automatics. That's a big incentive to steer ambivalent purchasers into them.

I, too, enjoy rowing my own despite a love for all things automation. However, if automatics were economically advantageous, I would choose them instead of a manual. My primary reason for choosing a 6-speed manual was the economics of the fuel savings. The secondary reason was fun. I'd gladly trade fun for convenience if automatics outperformed manual operation.

We disagree on what is the most significant factor in the decline of manual transmissions.

The majority of people I know under 30 don't know how to drive a manual. Likely the reason is that they started off driving an automatic, since they are easier to learn. Then, they never bothered to learn manual shifting. The older people I know prefer an automatic because older people tend to prefer simplicity.

Finally, automatic transmissions have made great improvements over the years. Automatics used to have fewer gears, shift more harshly, burn up, get worse fuel economy, and transmit less power to the wheels when compared to a manual. These disadvantages have mostly been overcome with modern designs.

I'm in violent agreement with you: there are multiple reasons for what's happening.

Don't Tase me, bro — but I want to go with no clutch and no transmission, like the Telsa. According to Teslarati, they added a feature called Creep, so it would act more like an automatic.

What it’s like to drive a transmission-less Tesla

What most people call efficiency is actually applied laziness. Shifting your own gears may look like more work but it's actually the easiest way to get the car to do what you want it to do when you tell it to do it. Being helpless in a car while the TCM figures out what you want and then waiting for the hydraulics to catch up once they finally get told what to do is no fun, and trying to game that system by hitting the gas way before you want to actually move is nerve wracking.

Just let me pick what gear the car's in. It's a lot easier that way.

Those charts tell me the people driving modern trucks are a bunch of weenies.

The only place I'll take my automatic is in a tractor, please (hydrostatic for the Brush Hog win!).