The End of Car Culture?
 

https://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/30/s...r-culture.html

The United States, with its broad expanses and suburban ideals, had long been one of the world’s prime car cultures. It is the birthplace of the Model T; the home of Detroit; the place where Wilson Pickett immortalized “Mustang Sally” and the Beach Boys, “Little Deuce Coupe.”

But America’s love affair with its vehicles seems to be cooling. When adjusted for population growth, the number of miles driven in the United States peaked in 2005 and dropped steadily thereafter, according to an analysis by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives, an investment research company. As of April 2013, the number of miles driven per person was nearly 9 percent below the peak and equal to where the country was in January 1995. Part of the explanation certainly lies in the recession, because cash-strapped Americans could not afford new cars, and the unemployed weren’t going to work anyway. But by many measures the decrease in driving preceded the downturn and appears to be persisting now that recovery is under way. The next few years will be telling.

...

Demographic shifts in the driving population suggest that the trend may accelerate. There has been a large drop in the percentage of 16- to 39-year-olds getting a license, while older people are likely to retain their licenses as they age, Mr. Sivak’s research has found.

He and I have similar observations about our children. Mine (19 and 21) have not bothered to get a driver’s license, even though they both live in places where one could come in handy. They are interested, but it’s not a priority. They organize their summer jobs and social life around where they can walk or take public transportation or car-pool with friends.

I've been reading and hearing about this trend for a while.

Last summer Autoline Detroit on PBS covered this topic in depth. Interesting how automobile companies have to compete with so-called "life experiences" and social networking media.

16 to 21 year olds cant get a job so easily any more.

The next economic boom will most likely see a return to more licensed drivers.

A lot of job ads I see require you to show a drivers license even if the job has nothing to do with driving.

Completely misses one reason for the drop in miles driven: telecommuting. Even though I drive as much to get to various recreational stuff, the elimination of at least 95% of work-related driving from my life means my total miles are down by at least a third, maybe half.

Same trend in Europe, BTW.
Youngsters are no longer really interested in cars.

Seems normal when they are getting thoroughly indoctrinated from kindergarten onwards that cars are bad and more or less the cause of all evil ...

I have actually seen a number of 20something young males in my area which seem to have developed a phobia of driving a car. Unheard of in the 70's when I got my license

I think the cars are having a little boom right now. The horsepower wars are in full force, diesel trucks, tuner cars, the subaru guys, the vdub guys, us, the list goes on. There are forums for even the most mundane vehicles.

Most of those guys who have car phobia ride around on a bike with no helmet. Rather ironic. With populations growing, less and less people in the city want to deal with a car and I understand that. In some cases it can't be afforded. A relative of mine pays $40,000 a year for a single spot in a parking garage in NYC.

Beyond that, even socialization takes place online now. Social media has allowed more people to keep in touch, more than ever. And they can keep in touch without visiting in person.

Better for me. I don't have to bankrupt myself on a cross-Pacific plane ticket to visit my relations Stateside. It's been twenty five years since I visited the family in Spokane.

-

The newer generation can't afford cars, and are building their lives around not using them. Not a bad thing, in my opinion.

Leaves more gas for the rest of us. :D

take social media and cell phones away.

Understandably so! Cars are a pain in the butt! could you imagine knowing nothing about a car and it breaking down? Well thats a big part cars have gotten more complex and car games they play just keep dumbing down. its a massive opposing force to love of cars. Similar to my change over 15 years back I drooled over Hemi cudas and GTO judges, now 3 cyl air cooled deisel converted metropolitans. well not quite so but you understand what I mean.

Yes it is. I read a few years back that world wide roughly 1 person was killed for every 10 bike miles traveled and 1 person dies for about every 100 car miles driven.

I think I will stay inside my air conditioned, air bag protected metal box.

I'm not certain but I would bet that car ownership rates per household and per person were lower in the forties and fifties when some of the music and popular celebration of the car began. Numbers and demographics, in other words, won't tell the whole story about "culture." Cultures are about meanings and significances and can defy metrics. If a kid only drives his mom's car a few miles a week, but dreams of them, or shows of in it, or goes on dates or to parties looking to ... car culture is alive and well. Our development pattern is dependent on these vehicles. I'd expect them to see changed meanings, but still be really significant to millions and still find themselves into songs and films (think Disney's "Cars" franchise).

The car culture marketing/propaganda was based on convincing people that cars get you freedom and pretty girls with a smile but nowadays the reality is that you mostly find yourself getting stuck in a traffic jam, often with a not so pretty nagging girl sitting beside you :)

I just chauk it (decline of red-blooded interest in cars) up to them being 'Millenium (gimme) Brats' (wink,wink).

If my experience is any indication, I can totally understand it. When I was growing up, there was little to do inside the house (no video games, no computers, etc), so I spent time outside and often watching / helping my Dad work on his cars. I learned a lot about cars and how they worked, which grew into a lifelong interest. Today, I still do my own maintenance and even some fairly in-depth repair (replacing axle, suspension).

On the other hand, my son (now 19) had things he could do inside his entire life. If I tried to get him to come out to help work on the car, he would come grudgingly and really wouldn't pay much attention to what I was trying to teach him. I gave up after a while. Now he doesn't have much of a clue about how cars work or what's required to maintain one. It's simply a tool to get from point A to B, and an expensive one at that, with insurance, registration, fuel costs, etc. If it weren't for the fact that we live out a ways from his high school (last year) and his junior college (this year), I don't think he'd even have gotten his license yet. I'm pretty sure if I was in his position, I'd feel the same way. Most of the young kids that he is with have a similar state of mind...

I can assure you that the current generation has the same (or more) of the entitlement and consumer mentality. They just have more options to spend their money on, and darn it if Apple keeps coming out with new iPhones.

Portland is where young people go to retire. There are scores of 20-30 somethings working part-time barista jobs and living with 5 other people. They can't afford a car, and convince themselves that a bicycle is all they need. Then they ask their environmentally clueless friend to borrow their vehicle.

It works for a while, but eventually a car is needed to facilitate our consumer and traveling lifestyle.

That's probably why the little "Car Sharing" companies like ZipCar and & CarShare are so popular...

Considering our peak mileage was in 2005, we're talking about a phenomenon that has been in the works for much longer than that. I was born before whatever cutoff that defines the up and coming Millennials. I had my permit at 17 and then a full license at 18. Then I updated it again after I turned 21. Cars are important to me not just as a tool to get where I need to go but have special meaning to me. Meanwhile, I have two siblings over 18 without a driver's license and no interest in owning a car.

I'd say the vilifying of cars is a minor factor. It's more that driving is very expensive and in cities, unbearable due to traffic congestion. In Europe the problem is exacerbated by high fuel prices. Add in how easy it is to communicate online and make friends far, far away. And you get the recipe for our current situation.

justme1969
I agree with you entirely. I always liked the Italian supercars and lately am really smitten with the Ford GT but even if I had the money to through around doubt I would buy it. I would be more likely to buy a velomobile with a big 48v 1000w assist.
Have you ever watched the movie Brazil? I would like the little car he drives but as an electric or a propane electric hybrid.
I really hate having to drive a car almost everyday.

I could have happily lived out the rest of my life never thinking again of the nonsense known as Brazil. Though I don't recall the car you are referring to, I can only imagine it's as ridiculous as the film.

it was a 1955 Messerschmitt KR 200

Thanks! Brazil was a brilliant film. Predicted several things about the Post Cold War culture quite well in its symbolic use of a variety of disgusting absurdities: the growth of plastic surgery into almost a norm, the ubiquitous presence of "terrorism", the unending celebration of Christmas, plumbing as a symbol of the abuse of the concept of intellectual property, and torture of a harmless man mistakenly identified by a callous and error-prone bureaucracy ...

You could I guess add the "demise" of "car culture" to the list of things the film presaged, but I'd suggest this forum and the way in which it celebrates a car like this:

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_PJX1UI4Hvy...-a18233194.jpg

... is a sign that Gilliam was too cynical. In the film, that car was meant to suggest that the joy would be squeezed out of motor vehicles. Instead, we think, and the guys in the photo appears to think, it's pretty damned cool. That's the thing about culture. It's often about meaning, not metrics.

The end is near, when it starts here. That's Right, Los Angeles Is Giving Up Car Lanes for Pedestrians - Eric Jaffe - The Atlantic Cities

On a related note. Cars (not necessarily pickups or SUVs) are getting smaller.

Last weekend I went on my yearly look at new cars. I have a 13 year old truck and a 17 year old car and sometimes they remind me of that age. so I looked at cars.

They have all shrunk. This is bad. Phil Knox has seen me and knows I earn my moniker. Most cars these days I cannot even get into. Unibodies and the drive for torsional stiffness has led to a massive lowering of top sills. Since people in general don't like reclining and driving peering through their moustache (like I did my old Camaro back in the day) cars have had to control frontal area (for better MPG) by getting narrower. so I have to drive leaning to the center with my head cocked over. Not acceptable. Even a Benz S-class wound up being a $113,000 midget-mobile.

I suppose if you are under 5'7" and 140 lb all is well, but I came to the conclusion my Impala might very well be the last car I ever own.

The Fiesta and Spark have really high roof lines. Focus and Cruze, not so much.

The car talk guys used to recommend the new VW bug before this current redesign. They thought that it had the most headroom and side to side room for the driver.

It's demographics?

http://www.nonags.org/members/nijqk/DOWandbirths.jpg

Due to the overweighting of boomers (in numbers not pounds?)....economically things are unlikely to pickup until 2022? This is due to people spending less after a certain age...uptick around 2022 will be from the younger generations reaching peak spending years.

By this time of course....Google or Microsoft will have found a way for humans to reproduce over their cell phones...obviating the need for physical contact. If the earth is lucky...the human population will decline due to these new cyber-families that will only exist in the cloud. :thumbup:

Cars are not the problem, their cost is. Well, that's why many folks would rather get a motorcycle if they really need a motor vehicle.

Recently I went to visit a cousin of my deceased grandpa near the Uruguayan border. This cousin used to have a VW Beetle, and now he's car-less altough he lives in a place that is basically far from everywhere, so a motor vehicle could be considered more a necessity than a luxury. His son, who is somehow afraid of motorcycles, got quite impressed with some tricycles we saw in Uruguay because of their comparatively low operating cost relatively to the cargo capacity. Basically, it leads to a conclusion that a motor vehicle culture won't fade away so soon, but costs might drive people to different and more efficient vehicles.

might have been mentioned already but you can buy almost anything online now a days so that has got to be a part of a decline in miles driven also.

if a store can ship something to me for "free" why would I drive and waste time and money to go pick it up my self.

Is it just my view on things or are a lot of cars today too luxurious? I prefer hand-crank (Manual) windows and not too much luxury; The more luxury there is to a car, The more there is to go wrong or that's how I look at it; Take the power windows, Power seats and air conditioning for examples and you might know what I'm talking about. I'm not saying "Let's all drive '49 Chevys", Just that to have new cars with fewer options would be nice. I haven't gone browsing brand new cars either, So do take my reply here as what it is and not necessarily holy; I'm just a guy posting on the internet.

Yep, too damn many electronic "geegaws"!

I don't think you will see any cars touting AC or power windows as luxury features. These systems tend to be very reliable too.

You may enjoy more of these "luxury" features without them breaking if you stay away from the used domestics. I'm always replacing stupid stuff on my Dodge RAM 2500; blower resistors, door switches, speed sensors, calipers; and not so stupid stuff like fuel pumps, transmission, differential bolts, AC...

My Subaru - 240,000 miles - replaced clutch at 120,000 miles (due to previous owner).

My TSX - 75,000 miles - No repairs.

So what is wrong with less people driving ? I can't think of a single bad thing about that.
Less accidents, less traffic, less pollution, better roads, etc.

I'm one of those guys you mentioned that has a phobia of driving. It's more of a claustrophobia i guess, since i enjoy driving when there are no cars on the road besides me.

I really look forward to self driving cars for people with extreme phobias. I could actually live life !

I get the impression that you guys think of an end to car culture as some sort of threat to your youth, like this will somehow make your old hot rod just a boring old car that is less interesting than the latest iPhone.

The car companies have been pushing options for so long they aren't even options anymore. All that crap falls apart and you toss out a decent car because it is not worth the cost of replacing a power window regulator on the drivers door (required for inspection).

They make 100% profit on options, about 20% on the most basic vehicle as an average, maybe even less these days.

I think there is a transformation coming and the company that builds basic transportation may actually be ahead of the optionaholics. I always told my customers when you buy an older car the fewer options the better.

Look at the price of a used Toyota Echo, the most basic transportation you could get from Toyota from 2000-05, even manual steeering, windows, and God help us, NO AC.
They couldn't sell them in 2005, but oh have times changed since then. Maybe they need to reconsider the low priced basic transportation vehicle, if they want young customers.

There may be a niche in the 3 wheel tadpole trike market for commuters. That's one reason I am building one, also it is considered a motorcyle instead of falling into the car category which would require crash testing which would be cost prohibitive for any small fry wanting to build a vehicle.

regards
Mech

It used to be (back in the good old days) that MANUAL transmissions were standard and AUTOMATIC transmissions were either an upgrade or were optional. Today, however, many vehicles only come with automatic transmissions--a manual transmission is not even available!

And, part of the reason for this situation is the high cost of EPA mandated separate testing of each & every vehicle engine and transmission combination...so, the manufacturers just drop the less profitable combinations and only test and offer the most lucrative combinations.

Also, the simple AM-FM radios (way back then) were either a delete or upgrade, today, they only come with video screens and quasi-in-car-computer systems!

People (and the automotive industry) seem to forget that AM radios in cars actually had a purpose...during 1950-60's every radio had CD (Civil Defense) markings at two locations on the dials for people to hear local and national emergency messages.

I hate this:
Where do you have X cars?
-They are over there.
AH, I see. Any standards?
-Yes, here you go.
*Points to cloth seats*
Not what I meant.

As much as I dislike the hi tech radios that distract drivers, regardless of their complexity, some prices are still low. As in my current number 3 favorite reasonable car, the Velociter base model w/ standard.

Cars are more expensive and smaller? Not from where I sit. If I look back at the price lists (in real terms) from 30 years ago, matching cars of similar size and weight, they have definitely become less expensive to buy. Not only that, they have as standard those "luxuries" (like A/C, ABS, ESP, power steering and airbags). Lower price and more content.

What has happened is that the same model name has been applied to cars that have progressively gained size and weight, presumably because people have been able to afford to do so.

Apart from the peak immediately prior to the GFC, fuel prices are lower and the ubiquitous powertrain electronic management means they use less of it.

Maintenance costs are lower because no longer do things like ignition points replacement and ignition timing and carburettor adjustments have to be done as part of regular servicing. Service intervals are longer; typically 10000 miles against 5000 miles.

Yes, they do cost more to repair when things do go wrong but they - the major things at least - are much less likely to do so.

That they have become more difficult for the untrained person to repair or modify may have had some affect on how 'connected' people can be to their cars. Where there are competing (electronic) means by which social status/cleverness can be demonstrated, particularly by young people, that aspect of car culture has less value anyway.

Automatic transmissions are just as likely to be standard because they are easier to make meet emission levels as they are because few people want to buy manual transmissions or the higher amortised cost of testing. Most of the contemporary automatic transmissions use comparable, even less, fuel too.

The automatic transmissions and electronic aids do make driving less involving. Stronger law enforcement, less tolerance of 'risky' behavior and higher population densities may limit somewhat the kind of fun that could once have been had in cars.

Not that Scion is doing well, but the fact that Toyota thinks they can market incredibly ugly crap cars to "young people" in particular probably says something about the trend.

@Occasionally6: That's the same thought I have.

It was interesting when people were harping on the Cruze in another thread by comparing it to the Chevette.

Cars like the Cruze and Focus are nearly twice as heavy as the Chevette and Escort that they are spiritual successors to. But they're also gigantic barges in comparison.

Even the Fit/Rio class, which are, inflation-adjusted, in the same price range as the Chevette/Escort class, are bigger than the Chevette/Escort by far.

If you want something that's Chevette sized, you're looking at this:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...ewei%C3%9F.JPG

Which provides similar space, more headroom, around the same weight, more technology, more safety and... isn't available in the US.

The Mirage will be, though. :D

I'll disagree, for the most part about automatics. They can be made to meet emissions testing much more easily due to the free pass the EPA gives them in terms of shift points, but in the real world, automatics still don't quite match manuals with good drivers, especially in traffic.

The point is moot in the USA, though, since EPA is the rules they have to play by... but as people start downsizing and down-speccing in a weaker economy with higher fuel prices, I think manuals will come back in vogue sooner or later.

I'm not the smartest person and I didn't consider all angles so do please take my reply on Page 3 as it is and not gospel, I don't just speak to you but to anyone reading.

And I speak from liking of a 1984 Caprice Classic which I drive which has Manual windows, Manual locks and frozen up A/C so that's part of where I'm coming from.

I don't know what FE I get on average in it at the time of this posting and editing, But that's another topic.