Tesla Inc - Discussion about the company and CEO.
 

It has been noted that a lot of the discussion in the Model 3 and Model Y threads is about Telsa and CEO Elon Musk not the actual cars. So here is a thread to talk about the company.

This should be a big week for Tesla.

22-April:
Musk his having a press conference to talk about autonomous driving.

24-April:
Tesla publishes their 1st quarter 2019 report

Things I will be looking for in the 1Q2019 report:

• How much did Tesla lose.
• How much cash do they have left
• What is their debt load (specifically how much do they owe suppliers)
• What is their Capital Spending. (Tesla cut Cap Ex spending in the 4th quarter to show a profit. Are they continuing the trend or are they spending the money necessary to launch the new vehicles they have promised)

25-April:
Thursday is the deadline for Musk and the SEC to reach an agreement on the outstanding lawsuit over Musk's tweets


Rounding out things happening at Tesla - Panasonic says they will not do the planned expansion at the Nevada Gigafactory to increase battery production. That is a pretty good indication that at least Panasonic is not expecting continued Tesla sales growth

Funny, all the people I know at the giga factory say they are building infrastructure like possessed demons. Rumors are either more battery or another assembly line, which is kinda contradictory. However, I have found all the rumor mongers tend to be incorrect some time in the future.

Watch the video of that latest fire. Fire is a gross understatement. Explosion more like it.

Tesla says the Model Y will be assembled at the gigafactory on a new line. If they are not building that line today there is no way they will hit the promised start of production date.

Edit: Same with the new Roadster and Semi.

Ah, but which giga factory? The one kinda finished, the one he is building or #3? And musk has proven he can build them really fast.

The original Gigafactory 1 in Nevada is going to build the Model Y.

Gigafactory 2 assemblies Panasonic solar panels for Solar City. It was plagued by delays and is operating at a fraction of the promised volume with a fraction of the promised workers. (Solar City promised 3,000 jobs to get $750 million in public incentives but only 800 people work there.) I wouldn't hold it up as a success.

Gigafactory 3 is under construction in China. Time will tell how fast it will be build and start volume production.

The investor day has come and gone.

Musk claims:

1. Tesla built the best computer chip ever on his first try. (Samsung makes the chip for Tesla)
2. Tesla will add full self driving capabilities to all current Teslas within a year.
3. Within 15 months (at the latest) Tesla have their own Uber like service that will allow customer cars to drive as robotic taxis and earn money for their owners
4. Level 5 autonomous driving is possible with just cameras. (Apparently he doesn't think anyone has driven a car with a back-up camera)

All in all it was the same Musk bluster. Lots of wild claims and promises that won't be kept.

1st quarter results:

• Tesla sold 63,000 vehicles
• They lost $702 million
• Tesla had to use cash to pay the $920 million bonds due in March because the stock price was too low.
• Tesla expects to lose money in the 2nd quarter
• Tesla has $2.2 billion cash on hand
• Musk says it is time to raise capital (borrow even more money)
• Tesla will create their own insurance company

Those are the headlines, I'll have to dig deeper into the details.

EDiT:

• Semi is delayed until 2020. Batteries and motors to be built in Nevada. No comment on final assembly location.
• Tesla might build the Model Y in Fremont or Nevada - the decision will be made in a few weeks. This is a big deal because it means they haven't started building the assembly line yet.

The 2020 Ford Escape PHEV Option

My new blog at EV World about the 2020 Ford Escape PHEV and how it may be a good viable option for those who cannot afford a long range Tesla Model 3 and who have charging infrastructure issues.

If they try to make anything here, they need to empty the building some. Wonder where they get the car railcars or the infrastructure to load ditto. The railcars are end loaders, not side loaders like box cars.

Where is "here"

Double-decked end-loading rail cars are typical for transporting automobiles. You contract with a rail company for them. All that is needed to load vehicles is a ramp that adjusts to the two levels. The infrastructure is minimal.

I like Tesla, I think they've done a great job at pushing the envelope and bringing technology and EV's to market MUCH faster than would have happened without Tesla.

However, Tesla really needs to focus on being profitable. I feel that Elon, and he has said this, doesn't really care if Tesla is around in 10 years as long as it has served its purpose of advancing EV's.

I would guess there is/will be a struggle in power when they have to decide between profitability and technological advancement, new products, etc.

Their fanciful promises take EV advancement away from legitimate products already available. Leaf sales tanked noticeably the instant the $35,000 Tesla (which meant $27,500 or less after tax credits) was promised for example. They also have done this advancement with 5 billion in taxpayer support. They have a duty to give back to the people at this point.

Tesla has no duty to be charitable. Their duty is to be profitable or die.

If the public didn't want to give the money to them, they shouldn't have given it.

I'm against the regressive subsidy to the wealthy in particular, but what do I know?

I dont see the Nissan leaf as legitimate actually. An air cooled EV battery is like an air cooled engine in a traditional vehicle. I mean it works... until it doesn't.

The Nissan leaf should sell at a significant discount to other EV's since it lacks active thermal management. It is priced lower but not enough for me to consider it.

Tesla is not aiming to put the Leaf out of the market, but rather all ICE cars.
An obligation to preserve the Leaf would make that quite hard, obviously...

I guess it's nobody's obligation NOT to be a snake oil peddler by the laws of man. Good luck with that long term.

Except that snake oil promises to do something it doesn't, while Tesla promises their EV is suitable for use as an EV, and it is.

False accusations are free, right?

A friend of mine has a 2016 Model X. She paid $8000 for Autopilot + Full Self Driving. She was promised an over the air software update in 2-3 years that will turn her car into a fully autonomous vehicle. How long should she have to wait before Tesla is forced to refund that $8000?

There's a legal case to be made there. I don't know contractually what the Full Self-drive option said, but then I doubt most people who purchased do because people don't read contracts anymore. That's the whole reason why most people in the early 2000s had cell phone contracts that read something like "you agree to pay the full monthly bill on time for the entire 2 year contract, and we guarantee nothing. You may never get cell coverage, and our network may break and never be fixed. If you terminate this agreement early, you pay $300 early termination fee".

Anyhow, when contracts are sufficiently unreasonable or difficult to interpret, courts return the parties back to their state prior to the contract; which would be your friend getting back the $8,000, and Tesla disabling that feature.

BTW- I think something like $5k of that $8k is for autopilot, which is working. The refund would be more like $3k then.

She didn’t spend $5k on “autopilot” to have adaptive cruise control and lane keeping. She spent the 5K because it is required to get Full Self Driving. She told us with a straight face that in 2 years her car was going to drive her to work in the morning while she slept. That is the dream Musk is selling for $8k.

Perhaps there's another legal case to be had there; if you purchased something with the understanding that it was necessary for something else to work, and that something else is not made available, then you should be able to get back your money. I'm no legal expert though. Sometimes that's just a risk consumers bear.

I guess the $5k was "Enhanced Autopilot" which is more than standard Autopilot. I don't follow Tesla closely enough to know the difference.

I'd push for a refund for several reasons. First, because self-driving wasn't made available in a reasonable timeframe. Second, because it's sure to come down in price over time. I'd rather pay a lower price when the product actually comes out, and the kinks get worked out.

There's a price to pay for being an early adopter, or essentially being a "go fund me" participant. Sometimes you get cool stuff before other people, albeit with various bugs to work out.

Frustration with Tesla seems reasonable to me, but I don't get why people with no stake in the game are so passionate. I considered putting a $1k deposit down on the 3, with almost no intention of actually buying. Just figured I didn't need the money and it opened an opportunity should I want it. Glad I didn't, because the reservations did practically nothing.

They aren't self-driving yet but Teslas are still one of the best values on the market. I read a lot about this- their motors are just more efficient.

Yes, there are more ev competitors emerging but their engineering isn't at the same level, they sell fewer, and they sell at a loss. You can get a Tesla for roughly the same price as a Kia ev. Hmm, I know which one I'll take.

The Kia has a $3750 advantage over Tesla in the US. In less than a year it will have a $7,500 advantage.

The extra $4k is well worth it to get a sports car over a soccer mom Kia, IMO. Sounds like you're talking about government subsidies that are out of Tesla's control.

Also, there's the Supercharger network.

Canada is playing mean. But the US may well extend the tax credit for an additional 400,000 cars. And there's the rest of the world to compensate, including the RHD countries that Tesla will roll out Model 3s to starting next week.

Meanwhile the SEC and Tesla reached an agreement: no fine, but tighter rules over what to tweet and what not.

I would take a Kia Niro EV over a Tesla even at the same price. They are a solid car company with good quality that is almost certain to be around to handle any warranty issues. The hatchback design is way more functional and then there is the interior. I won’t buy a car with all the controls on a touchscreen in the middle of the dash.

Tesla also sells EVs at a loss.

The difference is many companies sell their EVs at a marginal loss while Tesla does not. I'm not saying Tesla is in good financial standing, only that they are closest to making a profitable EV line.

The price on the Model 3 was reduced following the first credit phase out, which tends to create a ceiling on price. If the full federal tax credit comes back for a short period of time, I'd be inclined to get a base Tesla. It would be about $25,000 out the door if I work things correctly. Perhaps they'll have even more kinks worked out with fit and finish by then. I'd probably need to order it now if I wanted it in 6 months though.

I was watching a TFLcar video on YouTube yesterday. They backed into the edge of the garage on their brand new model 3 they bought when the $35,000 version was announced they had been waiting for. Of course they couldn't get a $35,000 and justified buying the upsell the the $50,000 version but that's another story. So they had to find a Tesla authorized shop in the Denver area and talked a bunch to an actual technician who pulls apart the Teslas, fixes them, and puts them all back together. He said basically they aren't that impressive in what Tesla is doing but he did say the model 3 is the best. He said get all up inside an Audi for instance and you really see the difference in engineering and build quality. BTW the minor, slow speed collision was like $6500 and could go higher once they peal back the outside layer of the onion.

What does a grease monkey know about "impressive" engineering? Sure, it's possible the autobody guy knows something, but it isn't likely. At any rate, the consensus does seem to suggest the body is the least well engineered system, which is fortunate because it's the most superficial.

Speaking of superficial, I wouldn't back into my garage in the first place, but if I did, I'd probably live with whatever superficial damage occurred since it's likely to happen again, and doesn't affect my enjoyment of the vehicle.

Should I decide to fix superficial damage, I'd do it myself. Worst case I'd hire someone handy with bondo and a paint sprayer. There's no scenario where I drop $6k on aesthetics, or allow my insurance premiums to skyrocket.

Someone backed into the front end of our Prius and caused a grand in damage to the bumper cover and some other little bits. There's a fist size hole now, but an extra grand in my bank account. Wish I could get that lucky more often.

Oh I agree, I'd pocket ANY damage claim and fix whatever myself to however I want it for a fraction of what shops charge. The problem is, this on most any other car would have been a $2-3000 hit being generous. What that means is insurance is going to cost more as these averages "pile up". Pun intended.

I do think mechanics know way more than you might give them credit for and he's outside the control of Tesla or any car maker for that matter so I trust his partiality. I think part of any automotive mechanical engineering degree should be at least one summer at a mechanical repair shop, one summer at a body shop, and one summer on the assembly line. Then we might get some well engineering cars.

Can't disagree with any of that. Part of vehicle design is ease of repair and maintenance. I think insurance premiums have been shown to be higher for Tesla, probably partially due to cost to repair.

Experiencing the thing you are designing for is important regardless of what it is. I've often thought it would be good if judges spent 24hrs in prison so when they say someone deserves a particular sentence, they have some context for asserting that, and also have a better understanding of the environment which usually is not conducive to rehabilitation.

Does she have something from Tesla stating that they'll turn her car into a fully autonomous vehicle in 2-3 years? If not, it'll be hard to force a refund from Tesla.

:turtle:

Musk likes to leave a twitter trail. This is just one tweet:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/823727035088416768

Twitter is an entertainment platform, not a news outlet. As such, users know that absolutely anything on there should be for entertainment value, and not for making important life decisions. Twitter's usefulness beyond entertainment probably doesn't extend much further than announcing when a party starts for a large audience.

That said, the context of the "6 month" reply was in this question:

That is a subjective question. What is the definition of "noticeably"? If the full self drive package received any update in which someone noticed the change, and it was not offered on the autopilot version, then it would be easy to argue that the Tweet was fulfilled technically, even if it missed the spirit of the question. In other words, it doesn't constitute a legal obligation.

I'm not saying Tesla/Musk is ethical, just saying that the other side of the picture is that consumers chose to "invest" in something which is not guaranteed, and have some responsibility for setting their expectations accordingly.

If some company said "we're definitely going to double battery capacity by the time your car is built", I wouldn't pre-purchase the car. It would be ludicrous for me to do so because implementing new technology or finding breakthroughs isn't a predictable thing. We all know that you should see something demonstrated before investing in it; but an abundance of enthusiasm clouds our judgement... and perhaps that enthusiasm is exactly what it took for Tesla to stand a chance of viability.

As much as I want it to, "noticeably depart" != the car driving itself while someone sleeps in the back. :D

I got a chance to look at the SEC filing.

First the good:

• Tesla's accounts payable went down. This means that they are paying their suppliers instead of delaying payment to try to show a profit. (Like they did in 3Q2018)
• Tesla expanded their supercharger network by 33%

Then the bad:

• Solar installations dropped 38% YoY
• Powerwall installation dropped 39% YoY
• R&D spending dropped YoY and QoQ
• Captial spending dropped YoY and QoQ
• Tesla not only burned through $1.5 billion in cash they also added $385 million to their debt.

YoY = Year over Year
QoQ = Quarter over Quarter

All this first quarter numbers reporting I am seeing here is just wrong. See attached link to Now You Know report on the Tesla first quarter financials.

https://youtu.be/dBCSA5voamQ

Why would you go to youtube when you can go to the source?

https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/b2...5-050eb29dd42f

It is only 10 pages long.