Quote:
Originally Posted by SentraSE-R
I got your back, Frank 
From wiki, 1.5 deaths/100 million miles traveled = 1 death/66.7 million miles.
60 mph X 24 hrs X 365.25 days = 525960 miles/yr driven @ 60 mph
66,666,667 miles/525960 = 126.75 yrs to drive 66.7 miles
You were only off by a factor of 3,000
So the odds of cashing in your chips via auto is less than once/lifetime. We knew that. Let's look at something more realistic - your chances of being injured in an auto accident.
There were 2.9 million auto accident injuries in 2005, and 42,643 deaths that year. That means your chances of an injury are 2,900,000/42,643 = 680 times greater than dying. If you're going to die in 126.75 years of driving, you're going to get injured in 68 days.
More realistically, with 300 million people in the country, 1 out of every hundred is going to be injured in an auto accident every year. If you drive 50 years, you've got a 50%-50% chance of being injured in an accident. Would you rather have it happen in an 80s tin can, or in the newest whiz-bang car with all the current safety features? |
Good, thanks for the validations. I must have used the national average miles driven before (and that is more sensible anyway) i.e. 66,700,000 m / 12,000m/year = 5,558 years.
Jack around with these numbers all you want, the result always is the odds are low low looooooow and anyone that thinks they need a Subdivision or 27 air bags to deal with it just ain't focussing.