Ever stopped at a dealer to confim how great your current car is?

[roflwaffle]

Originally Posted by Frank Lee

Once upon a time I mathed out the odds of becoming a highway fatality; found the data for fatalities/miles travelled, and whatnnot.

The odds of becoming a highway fatality are something like thus: you'd have to drive 24/7 for like 350,000 years before your number comes up.

This is what's causing a major national freak-out?

If someone wants to math it again to validate/correct, great. I ain't doing it again, felt like it was ignored/disbelieved the first time anyway.

I'm getting that it would take ~350 years driving 24/7 at 35mph to die, on average. Roughly, there's a one in ten thousand chance that someone will die in a car accident each year they drive. Course, given the difference in behavior behind the wheel, I'm pretty sure this can vary widely from person to person.

[roflwaffle]

Originally Posted by SentraSE-R

More realistically, with 300 million people in the country, 1 out of every hundred is going to be injured in an auto accident every year. If you drive 50 years, you've got a 50%-50% chance of being injured in an accident. Would you rather have it happen in an 80s tin can, or in the newest whiz-bang car with all the current safety features?

I think that's a bit simplistic. If someone really wanted to look at the difference in risk, I think it'd be better to compared fatality rates in 19xx when the average car was n years old to fatality rates in 20yy when the average car was m years old. Better yet, go over the fatality rate/accident rate case by case and see how they change w/ car type as well as driver profile, provided that info was available, which I doubt.

[luvit]

Originally Posted by SentraSE-R

So the odds of cashing in your chips via auto is less than once/lifetime.

that's good i would hate to die twice in a lifetime. or more times.

[Lazarus]

Originally Posted by roflwaffle

Roughly, there's a one in ten thousand chance that someone will die in a car accident each year they drive. Course, given the difference in behavior behind the wheel, I'm pretty sure this can vary widely from person to person.

Yea but it really suck if you're the one. That's why I roll with this. Impervious to all cars.

[Frank Lee]

Originally Posted by SentraSE-R

I got your back, Frank

From wiki, 1.5 deaths/100 million miles traveled = 1 death/66.7 million miles.
60 mph X 24 hrs X 365.25 days = 525960 miles/yr driven @ 60 mph
66,666,667 miles/525960 = 126.75 yrs to drive 66.7 miles

You were only off by a factor of 3,000

So the odds of cashing in your chips via auto is less than once/lifetime. We knew that. Let's look at something more realistic - your chances of being injured in an auto accident.

There were 2.9 million auto accident injuries in 2005, and 42,643 deaths that year. That means your chances of an injury are 2,900,000/42,643 = 680 times greater than dying. If you're going to die in 126.75 years of driving, you're going to get injured in 68 days.

More realistically, with 300 million people in the country, 1 out of every hundred is going to be injured in an auto accident every year. If you drive 50 years, you've got a 50%-50% chance of being injured in an accident. Would you rather have it happen in an 80s tin can, or in the newest whiz-bang car with all the current safety features?

Good, thanks for the validations. I must have used the national average miles driven before (and that is more sensible anyway) i.e. 66,700,000 m / 12,000m/year = 5,558 years.

Jack around with these numbers all you want, the result always is the odds are low low looooooow and anyone that thinks they need a Subdivision or 27 air bags to deal with it just ain't focussing.

[jamesqf]

Originally Posted by MadisonMPG

LOL @ ALL U LOOZERS IN UR METROS! HAHAH I DRIVE DIS!!!

I see that, and raise you this: M136 AT4

Which reminds me of a song I made up once, when I was commuting long distances over tourist-infested mountain roads. Goes to the tune of that old (Joan Baez?) one about the Mercedes Benz. (There are a lot more verses that I've forgotten.)

Oh Lord, won't you buy me
an anti-tank gun.
I'd use it on RVs,
I'd get them every one.
They won't use the turnouts,
so their day is done.
Oh Lord, won't you buy me,
an anti-tank gun.

[RH77]

I really enjoy vehicle age, size, weight, and technology arguments! This is the best one so far because it has ALL of them.

We're not changing anyone else's minds, are we?

It seems like lots of opinion and a little of fact sprinkled-in.

I say drive what you want.
Do it efficiently.
Do it safely.
...and this exact topic will be re-visited, again, in about 4 months, in a separate thread.

See some of my favorites. I know they'll soon be yours too!!!

Crash Safety Then (1959) and Now (2009)
Cameras are a success in Quebec (for speeding & red lights)
Why doesn't the U.S. get good FE cars?
What are the car manufacturers doing??
Why I Strive For MPG In A Big Pickup
Car & Driver disses buying old economy cars to save fuel

...and my personal favorite:
Small Can Be Safe
(I won't spoil the ending)

Happy Motoring

RH77

[luvit]

nope no one should be allowed to drive what they want.
everyone should drive a moped. i'll drive a hovercraft.

[Oval_Overload]

I'm not saying everyone would take advantage of it, but some would. Hell my sister is a frickin' pr0n model and does all her own vehicle repairs including engine rebuilds... so it's not like the stereotypical "gear head male" is necessary to turn wrenches and follow repair manual steps.

Your sister sounds like one cool cat
I love whacky people like this.

~Jimbo

[Frank Lee]

National Weather Service says the odds of being struck by lightening in a lifetime (est. 80 years) are 1/6250.

Where's the big national freakout?