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I know my luck... it usually ain't good. But I was able to go several years with no spare/tools and I had no bad tire incident come up either. If you know your track record- how many flats have you suffered?- you can come up with sort of an idea of what the odds are you will be inconvenienced with a flat. For me, when I have really good or new tires on, I simply don't have flats. I just haven't had a problem with getting flats from running over sharp objects. Now, I have had many flats, even blowouts, but that's when I run old, weatherchecked, and/or bald tires. THEN I make sure to have a good spare with tools on board. Changing out those flats has been a very minor inconvenience to me, so it's been well worth it to run those crap tires.
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