My guess would be that the the original '20% gets 10%' conjecture is a 'rule of thumb', based on the total resistance being half aero and half rolling resistance; but with rolling resistance being linear and aero being exponential—not always accurate in all cases.
Edit: So I see it's not that I'm a slow typist, there were three pages to the thread, not one.
So I'm going to fall back to Your Mileage May Vary.