From the OP:
Quote:
Originally Posted by suspectnumber961
Their conclusions are yet more confirmation that the dire predictions of the 1972 report, “Limits to Growth”, were accurate...
|
The original report was produced by the '
Club of Rome'. One of the original founders of that club, Alexander King,
wrote his memoirs. He stated :
Quote:
|
It has to be remembered however that this is a ‘passive’ model in that it assumes no important economic, social, technological, or political changes will have taken place during the target years to sufficiently alter the interactions. Important changes that cannot be foreseen will, of course, take place
|
and
Quote:
|
it is in no way a prophesy of coming doom” but a warning of what might happen if there were absolutely no changes whatsoever.
|
It wasn't meant to be read oustide academic circles where the limitations of the models used would be appreciated, but it seems to have taken a life of its own. Its interesting that the
official site (of the 2004 update) still says this
Quote:
|
In 2004 an updated edition was published; “Limits to Growth: The 30 Year Update“. Analysis of data gathered over the time since the first edition showed that the original models appeared to be realistic. Oil industry expert Matthew Simmons was quoted on the cover of the 2004 edition
|
That will be the Simmons who wrote extensively (and thoroughly - his analysis of the situation in Saudi is worth a read) on peak oil - which is not happening anytime soon apparently.